TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3ddd…3fe6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-9.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+334.8%+$50.22
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$133.55
Will France win on 2026-07-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$75
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$75Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$51.05
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$61.29
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Belgium vs. Senegal: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Denmark win on 2026-03-31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.36
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick58cpaid-37.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Champions League — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.46
Will FC Bayern München vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.25
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$23.72
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.16
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
Chelsea FC vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
FK Bodø/Glimt vs. Sporting CP: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Newcastle United FC vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.71
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-03-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 12 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 31, 2026, EDT1233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-42.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
NBA — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Pistons vs. Magic backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.27
Hawks vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.44
Hawks vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.73
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.21
Suns vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$8.84
Timberwolves vs. Pistonsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Timberwolves vs. Mavericksbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$10.58
Raptors vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT+127.8%+$25.56
Spread: Heat (-12.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+88.7%+$11.53
Suns vs. Kings: O/U 223.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$32
All 12 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick61cpaid+45.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+67.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-49.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Jets vs. Starsbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$17.37
Sharks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
All 2 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+87.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+81.8%+$12.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs FURIA fe (BO3) - CCT South America Series #9 Playoffsbacked Isurus · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+34.7%+$6.93
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Los Angeles Angels vs. New York Yankeesbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.