TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x526d…73f1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
172
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: NHL, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 59 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT13844.9%62 W · 76 L-0.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid+5.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 138 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pacers vs. Knicksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Magic vs. Hawksbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$28
Kings vs. Clippersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$73.62
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Bulls vs. Lakersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Raptors vs. Pelicansbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Timberwolves vs. Lakersbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$12
Hornets vs. Sunsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Mavericks vs. Celticsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Pistons vs. Spursbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$22
Hawks vs. Bucksbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+100%+$12
Grizzlies vs. Timberwolvesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+75.4%+$10.56
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+44.9%+$5.84
Thunder vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+26.6%+$3.19
Heat vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+203%+$24.36
Cavaliers vs. Thunderbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Jazz vs. Grizzliesbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Suns vs. Spursbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$13
Spurs vs. Warriorsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+49.3%+$9.85
Cavaliers vs. Nuggetsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+122.2%+$17.11
Heat vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$11.53
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+56.3%+$6.75
76ers vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+78.6%+$13.36
Showing 25 of 138 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Oct 21, 2025, EDT1844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mariners vs. Blue Jaysbacked Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$18.74
Cubs vs. Brewersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 7, 2025, EDT+78.6%+$19.64
White Sox vs. Nationalsbacked White Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Diamondbacks vs. Twinsbacked Twins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Yankees vs. Red Soxbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 13, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Brewers vs. Rangersbacked Brewers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$18
Mariners vs. Bravesbacked Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+92.3%+$13.85
Guardians vs. Raysbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 7, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$14
Dodgers vs. Oriolesbacked Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$17.95
Rangers vs. Diamondbacksbacked Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 3, 2025, EDT+85.2%+$11.93
Mets vs. Tigersbacked Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
Rays vs. Guardiansbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT+127.3%+$16.02
Cubs vs. Giantsbacked Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 27, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Guardians vs. Rangersbacked Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Red Sox vs. Yankeesbacked Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+132.6%+$14.58
Rays vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 12, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Red Sox vs. Padresbacked Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Reds vs. Piratesbacked Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2025, EDT-100%-$14
All 18 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Oct 22, 2025, EDT1471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.23per pick48cpaid+57.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
NHL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Avalanche vs. Utahbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 22, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Ducks vs. Krakenbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
Predators vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+122.2%+$201.03
Capitals vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2025, EST+100%+$53
Blackhawks vs. Lightningbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+354.6%+$201.4
Utah vs. Jetsbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Canucks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+58.7%+$7.64
Canadiens vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+88.7%+$17.56
Capitals vs. Oilersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST+143.9%+$24.46
Kings vs. Canucksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+96.1%+$11.53
Kraken vs. Penguinsbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2025, EST+117.4%+$12.91
Rangers vs. Devilsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2024, EST+47.1%+$8.47
Panthers vs. Wildbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2024, EST+72.4%+$9.41
Oilers vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2024, EST-100%-$11
All 14 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST-100%-$11
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fulham wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$28
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.