TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9e82…6060

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
67
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: NHL, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category NHL at 57 out of 100; worst Premier League at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2025, EDT2958.6%17 W · 12 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Boston Celtics win the Eastern Conference?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.46
Pistons vs. Trail Blazersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+72.4%+$49.12
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$91.77
Suns vs. Mavericksbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+37%+$58.82
Pistons vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+49.3%+$50.85
Lakers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+40.8%+$28.09
Magic vs. Bucksbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST+163.2%+$54.82
Bulls vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST-100%-$91.39
Pacers vs. Hawksbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EST-100%-$77.82
Spurs vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+44.9%+$57.64
Timberwolves vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$79.62
Jazz vs. Raptorsbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$71.37
Trail Blazers vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+26.6%+$15.92
Nets vs. Spursbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST-100%-$100.05
Bucks vs. Hawksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2025, EST+40.8%+$12.4
Hawks vs. Grizzliesbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+300%+$119.91
Wizards vs. Hornetsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+138.1%+$58.7
Timberwolves vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST+150%+$32.14
Trail Blazers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2025, EST-100%-$127.7
Bulls vs. 76ersbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST+163.2%+$113.56
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2025, EST-100%-$70.91
Timberwolves vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+69.5%+$46.82
Grizzlies vs. Pacersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2025, EST-100%-$53.93
Bucks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+127.3%+$85.11
Mavericks vs. Pelicansbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2025, EST+92.3%+$59.92
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2025, EDT2365.2%15 W · 8 L+3.0wins+0.13per pick52cpaid+25.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
NHL — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Islanders vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2025, EDT+100%+$89.69
Blue Jackets vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$101.63
Jets vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+81.8%+$16.76
Kraken vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$140Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT+44.9%+$62.84
Sabres vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+40.8%+$26.63
Blues vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST-100%-$126.92
Utah vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+150.7%+$209.42
Red Wings vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2025, EST+49.3%+$62.47
Utah vs. Red Wingsbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2025, EST+84.4%+$99.87
Flames vs. Flyersbacked Flames · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$103Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2025, EST+122.9%+$126.6
Maple Leafs vs. Penguinsbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$113Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2025, EST+58.7%+$66.57
Flyers vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST+96.1%+$80.35
Devils vs. Avalanchebacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2025, EST-100%-$30.73
Rangers vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST+100%+$119.96
Capitals vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2025, EST-100%-$72.7
Canadiens vs. Ducksbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2025, EST-100%-$61.4
Predators vs. Penguinsbacked Predators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST-100%-$59.1
Avalanche vs. Islandersbacked Islanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2025, EST+113%+$64.43
Canucks vs. Bluesbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2025, EST+127.1%+$85.17
Senators vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2025, EST+143.9%+$48.48
Devils vs. Maple Leafsbacked Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST-100%-$42.24
Canucks vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2025, EST+69.5%+$9.57
Stars vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
All 23 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.35per pick69cpaid-55%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Super Bowl LIX Winnerbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$48.42
Colts vs. Giantsbacked Colts · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST-100%-$11
Cardinals vs. Ramsbacked Rams · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2024, EST+35.1%+$5.27
All 3 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Aug 20, 2025, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Astros vs. Tigersbacked Astros · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.49
Mariners vs. Yankeesbacked Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+112.8%+$31.25
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Brighton win on 2025-02-25?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$146Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2025, EST-100%-$146.16
Will Liverpool win on 2025-02-23?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2025, EST-100%-$220.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jan 17, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.60per pick40cpaid+150%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2025, EST+150%+$24.78
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win La Liga?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2025, EDT+104.1%+$19.71
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.68
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.