TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd6f3…72fc

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
82
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NFL, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category NFL at 55 out of 100; worst Fed Rates at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT5058%29 W · 21 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 50 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hornets vs. Magicbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$295Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$295
Mavericks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$223Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST+29.9%+$66.69
Trail Blazers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Hornets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$697Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$696.9
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$477Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+132.6%+$632.7
Kings vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$321Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$321.3
Jazz vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$810Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+85.2%+$690
Rockets vs. Hornetsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$627Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+75.4%+$472.97
Pacers vs. Wizardsbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$372Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$372
Trail Blazers vs. Jazzbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$781Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+40.8%+$319
Bucks vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,360Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$1,360
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$412Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+72.4%+$298.2
Clippers vs. Kingsbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$682Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+61.3%+$418.18
Hornets vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$522Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$522
Magic vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$442Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+51.5%+$227.8
Cavaliers vs. Sunsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$832Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$832
Rockets vs. Hawksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$642Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST+66.7%+$428
Lakers vs. Cavaliersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$420Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$420.42
Trail Blazers vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST+244.8%+$426
76ers vs. Hornetsbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$435Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 26, 2026, EST+78.6%+$341.88
Mavericks vs. Kingsbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$384Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+56.3%+$216
Knicks vs. Pistonsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$560Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$560
Celtics vs. Clippersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$441Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+63.3%+$279
Timberwolves vs. Heatbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$678Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+78.6%+$532.4
Knicks vs. Raptorsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+56.3%+$108
Showing 25 of 50 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 10, 2026, EDT1369.2%9 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+55.6%+$88.91
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$221Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+35.9%+$79.2
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$129.3
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+25%+$10
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+25.8%+$27.48
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+85.2%+$46
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$13.83
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+33.7%+$101.08
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+41.3%+$15.27
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST+129.9%+$56.5
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+35.5%+$23.58
All 13 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+47.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: 49ers (-7.5)backed 49ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$1,030Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+100%+$1,030
Spread: Lions (-10.5)backed Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+138.1%+$30
Cowboys vs. Raidersbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+58.7%+$246.42
Commanders vs. Dolphinsbacked Commanders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$247.72
Eagles vs. Packersbacked Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+40.8%+$58
All 5 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2025, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+56.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blue Jackets vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$663Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$662.7
Kings vs. Sharksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$59Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$59
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+126.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Taylor Fritzbacked Alcaraz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+126.9%+$91.27
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Nov 14, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pakistan ODI Series: Pakistan vs Sri Lanka (Game 2)backed Pakistan · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$310Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+61.3%+$189.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$152Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+56.3%+$85.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$442Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+56.2%+$248.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces enter Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$239Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$71.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jan 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs GOOD GAME SPOT (BO3) - Myskill Pro League Group Abacked GOOD GAME SPOT · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 13, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Manhattan Jaspers vs. Niagara Purple Eaglesbacked Niagara Purple Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$439Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$439
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.