Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7212f7541b5f988795ccd76ac9345bf1d7dd887e5705f30e12d93911cf3bd9e

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $41,783
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $41,702

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,783 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbc8c…273fbacked Yes	0c	33,000$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-77.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed Yes	63c	448.27$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$283.07	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed No	77c	421.67$326 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$95.54	145	34.5%50 W · 95 L	-11.4wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	18c	400$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$328	318	51.9%165 W · 153 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe542…0a37backed No	25c	338.4$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$252.8	263	30%79 W · 184 L	+12.6wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b9e…6838backed No	25c	315.57$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.57	23	43.5%10 W · 13 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	42cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed Yes	23c	269.29$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	403	55.3%223 W · 180 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed No	77c	250$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.99	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8d85…f4e0backed No	46c	237.47$109 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$127.98	26	65.4%17 W · 9 L	+5.3wins	+0.20per pick	45cpaid	+41.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x15dc…bd6dbacked Yes	18c	212.3$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	36cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x322e…a2cebacked Yes	75c	200$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	79	45.6%36 W · 43 L	-3.0wins	-0.04per pick	49cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked No	73c	176.91$129 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.91	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed No	19c	169.99$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$137.69	185	38.9%72 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	67c	169.99$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.59	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	13c	169.29$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.01	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3404…3a93backed No	71c	140.27$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.27	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	47cpaid	+20.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes	23c	136.57$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.54	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd03d…107ebacked Yes	13c	134.29$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	28	57.1%16 W · 12 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	-7.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…68f2backed Yes	77c	119.99$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.39	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.9wins	-0.63per pick	63cpaid	-100%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e78…ec03backed No	22c	113.5$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.5	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d82…3a1bbacked No	76c	109.55$84 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.97	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes	74c	100$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	116	32.8%38 W · 78 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa853…58a9backed No	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.8wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-40.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f0a…46a4backed Yes	60c	100$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	19	63.2%12 W · 7 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	54cpaid	+32%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x151e…539bbacked Yes	14c	99.87$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.23	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	47cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	17c	98.12$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.63	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x959e…5d55backed Yes	27c	92.59$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	+1.9wins	+0.11per pick	34cpaid	+30.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x53b4…cef0backed Yes	79c	92.17$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.81	31	61.3%19 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-4.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No	59c	91.42$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37.59	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	13c	88.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.25	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed Yes	18c	85.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.49	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a5…0e36backed Yes	80c	82.27$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.43	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-4.8wins	-0.14per pick	61cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	30c	74.62$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.06	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x51b1…7865backed No	28c	73$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.69	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7b…2a5fbacked Yes	69c	71.12$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.85	201	42.8%86 W · 115 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc0a4…72adbacked No	79c	67.83$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.99	65	78.5%51 W · 14 L	+8.7wins	+0.13per pick	65cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0x185d…7b68backed No	80c	60$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	29c	50.59$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.56	8,614	29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L	-166.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-32.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	76c	50.3$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.04	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3c15…45a0backed No	24c	50$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$38	129	36.4%47 W · 82 L	-5.9wins	-0.05per pick	41cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4e9…bf77backed No	77c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	54	50%27 W · 27 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa0bc…d428backed Yes	80c	50$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0111…6ac0backed Yes	27c	50$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc348…2a83backed Yes	72c	50$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-6.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94d8…37e6backed Yes	34c	49.76$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.13	51	41.2%21 W · 30 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	39cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b30…100fbacked No	23c	47.61$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.66	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed Yes	80c	44$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8647…d870backed No	24c	41.88$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.84	64	43.8%28 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	40cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	26c	40$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf528…7e5bbacked No	69c	35.94$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.12	198	74.7%148 W · 50 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	74cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x405b…755cbacked Yes	70c	30$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-5.1wins	-0.51per pick	71cpaid	-72.9%equal weight	34-0.15 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	78c	23.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.71	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	80c	20$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c7f…1f7abacked Yes	80c	20$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.8wins	-0.80per pick	80cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6c6dbacked Yes	53c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.53per pick	53cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x49c4…bf77backed Yes	72c	16.49$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	152	61.2%93 W · 59 L	+7.4wins	+0.05per pick	56cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xff67…a1c9backed No	71c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.35	59	54.2%32 W · 27 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd677…aa0ebacked No	71c	15$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.35	58	58.6%34 W · 24 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4760…33f4backed Yes	78c	15$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.7	18	61.1%11 W · 7 L	+1.5wins	+0.09per pick	53cpaid	+33.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2383…a117backed Yes	75c	13.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Raphinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event