TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x7d5c…c732

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
52
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 59 out of 100; worst Ukraine at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+182.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+71.4%+$45.38
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+1,900%+$237.5
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.85
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$60.48
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+69.5%+$12.3
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+28.2%+$4.4
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+63.9%+$7.8
Monad market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+81.4%+$98.26
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+35.1%+$3.7
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST+56.3%+$45
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.62
All 11 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+2.9wins+0.29per pick31cpaid+158.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
World Politics — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+869.3%+$127.45
Will UP win the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2025 Argentina election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Will Rafał Trzaskowski win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$56.8
Will Karol Nawrocki win by 0-4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+303.9%+$283.84
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$161Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+190%+$306.74
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.74
Will Karol Nawrocki be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT+337.6%+$192.4
Will Elena Lasconi advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will George Simion advance to the Romanian Presidential Election Runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2025, EDT+138.1%+$17.4
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 27, 2025, EST560%3 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.20per pick40cpaid+91.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Magicbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 27, 2025, EST-100%-$119.7
Rockets vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST-100%-$49.2
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+300%+$97.5
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+203%+$53.6
Bulls vs. Hawksbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+156.4%+$48.8
All 5 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-70.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-13.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+17.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST+72.4%+$12.6
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$22.35
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 11, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Editionbacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$23.04
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$10.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
5kt meteor strike in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+51.5%+$20.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Dec 21, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Aston Villa FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST+33.3%+$14.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
BNB all time high by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$80
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Larry Ellison/Oracle acquire TikTok?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Venezuela military engagement by November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.