TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Middle East · resolved market

Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,280,816
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,347,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,280,816 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Middle East
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6adc…bebabacked Yes0c180,197$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001428.6%4 W · 10 L+1.0wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4a12…9d86backed Yes0c154,565$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.482020%4 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x521e…689bbacked Yes0c113,436$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+16.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8045…c601backed Yes0c92,921$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.92944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick39cpaid-30.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc613…6a7fbacked Yes0c33,207$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.62333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick46cpaid-50.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa708…9abbbacked Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick3cpaid+470%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf72a…ac4fbacked Yes0c29,170$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.230%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes0c25,989$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.983240.6%13 W · 19 L+3.0wins+0.09per pick31cpaid+71.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6e59…ab31backed Yes0c24,382$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbeb6…5ba8backed Yes0c20,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a83…4c59backed Yes6c18,068$998 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$998.442738.9%166 W · 261 L+30.7wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+8.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes2c16,672$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.9336750.4%185 W · 182 L+39.6wins+0.11per pick40cpaid+26.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x43dd…a1cfbacked Yes0c13,993$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9930%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b3…6193backed Yes0c11,726$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.532842.9%12 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.10per pick33cpaid+1.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8456…e61abacked Yes0c10,815$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401338.5%5 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick30cpaid-35.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x24d5…c4c0backed Yes5c10,241$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.63966.7%6 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.33per pick33cpaid+54.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xbcdb…9362backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10137.7%1 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick4cpaid-23.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5e1…1728backed Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick11cpaid+260.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7189…a1adbacked Yes0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84fa…1327backed Yes20c9,905$2,006 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,005.9314335%50 W · 93 L+0.1wins0.00per pick35cpaid-21.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34c3…aa41backed Yes1c9,300$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes0c8,530$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.93450%2 W · 2 L+1.4wins+0.36per pick14cpaid+151.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf40…4644backed Yes0c8,303$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4560%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes0c7,800$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6698.7%6 W · 63 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick13cpaid-79.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3164…3033backed Yes0c7,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208056.3%45 W · 35 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+10.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c4…c131backed Yes4c6,687$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2117646.6%82 W · 94 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc85a…afb1backed Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-50.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x110a…38a8backed Yes1c6,180$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.871879.1%17 W · 170 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-43%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe471…c87cbacked Yes2c5,500$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.523525.5%60 W · 175 L+4.0wins+0.02per pick24cpaid-5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcff…2a59backed Yes0c5,500$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113839.5%15 W · 23 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-30.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4221…7364backed Yes14c5,047$687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$686.591915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.2wins-0.12per pick27cpaid-63.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc794…d09cbacked Yes1c4,998$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2287.1%2 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick15cpaid-22.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes6c4,256$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.8417931.3%56 W · 123 L+6.2wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-15.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7373…7701backed Yes1c4,000$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245541.8%23 W · 32 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick37cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4607…7811backed Yes6c3,384$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.111428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick36cpaid-33.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17ba…a074backed Yes1c3,367$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e7…c727backed Yes2c3,198$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.516657.6%38 W · 28 L+3.2wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff2b…b73abacked Yes11c2,714$307 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$307.07425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick40cpaid-68.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bed…43cfbacked Yes3c2,711$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.76837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick16cpaid+49.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1128…cfa5backed Yes0c2,644$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.535616.1%9 W · 47 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-44.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x689c…f9adbacked Yes2c2,515$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.74728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid-52.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd67b…5780backed Yes3c2,022$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7738247.6%182 W · 200 L+37.1wins+0.10per pick38cpaid+32.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc139…abbdbacked Yes12c1,967$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes4c1,930$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.6331649.7%157 W · 159 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed Yes8c1,849$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.239647.9%46 W · 50 L+8.0wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+8.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes15c1,758$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.024242.9%18 W · 24 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes5c1,638$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.0377636.9%286 W · 490 L+6.9wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-35.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d61…aa30backed Yes7c1,506$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad7d…f545backed Yes6c1,501$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.121233.3%4 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+224.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7add…f9f4backed Yes39c1,492$582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$582.0723839.9%95 W · 143 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a16…515cbacked Yes2c1,447$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60a9…5a71backed No49c1,347$662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.3338237.7%144 W · 238 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes6c1,281$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.896728.4%19 W · 48 L+4.2wins+0.06per pick22cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes7c1,106$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.891,5587.2%112 W · 1,446 L-35.1wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfcf7…3033backed Yes1c1,102$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+7.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes1c1,100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.521034.3%72 W · 138 L+9.3wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes10c1,100$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.919428.9%56 W · 138 L+0.1wins0.00per pick29cpaid-23.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd486…2287backed Yes12c1,076$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.11520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-73.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8e5…cb25backed Yes2c1,062$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211020%2 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Yes8c1,018$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.966018.3%11 W · 49 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick25cpaid-34.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x983c…385dbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306240.3%25 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc97a…44d7backed Yes5c967.29$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.13534.3%12 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-39.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03ac…4f55backed Yes8c928.28$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.92445.8%11 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-12.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xcba0…97bfbacked No77c905.99$697 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.783253.1%17 W · 15 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick42cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x31d5…718dbacked Yes3c822.28$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2220%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03c8…0e01backed Yes6c800$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.697816.7%13 W · 65 L-0.3wins0.00per pick17cpaid-18.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes3c775.6$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.217414.4%25 W · 149 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick15cpaid+17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc048…57bcbacked Yes6c732.09$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c19…f9cdbacked Yes11c725.28$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7059…9549backed Yes12c723.39$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.231353.8%7 W · 6 L+2.5wins+0.19per pick35cpaid+32.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed No70c627.21$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.292737%10 W · 17 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick45cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes18c565.64$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.189626%25 W · 71 L-2.6wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-21.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x382c…a0d7backed Yes11c500$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.123625%9 W · 27 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30b2…9e25backed Yes6c476.47$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.243537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-10.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked No72c440.56$317 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.732626.9%7 W · 19 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-50.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes4c417.13$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.69757.1%4 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked Yes10c410.23$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.385253.8%28 W · 24 L+1.9wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked Yes10c400$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.5wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-40.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x92d0…269ebacked No32c365$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$248.4440939.6%162 W · 247 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d82…7d33backed Yes28c362.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004060%24 W · 16 L+4.1wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+4.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes27c346.4$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.5156336.6%206 W · 357 L+44.4wins+0.08per pick29cpaid+37.7%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x9c6c…00b9backed Yes6c320$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.26520%1 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick20cpaid-16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes9c300$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.422846.1%105 W · 123 L+22.6wins+0.10per pick36cpaid+17.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe343…5c31backed Yes7c298.51$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2040%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0060…4cc4backed Yes11c280$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.8837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes12c262.18$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.285725.2%216 W · 641 L-115.1wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-43.7%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x101e…dcc1backed Yes10c260.42$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-68.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6286…f59cbacked Yes5c257.86$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6825518%46 W · 209 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-26.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x90be…c800backed Yes30c257.26$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9615331.4%48 W · 105 L-7.4wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-33.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d45…020fbacked Yes5c255$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick14cpaid-29.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes4c250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103588.7%31 W · 327 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick6cpaid+99.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d51…6f1fbacked No78c238.61$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.593850%19 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-19.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38e1…ab0fbacked No31c219.85$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.85560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+31.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xed9e…f5f1backed No39c209.98$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.79944.4%4 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick45cpaid+8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d24…43d9backed Yes10c200$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes8c200$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151250%6 W · 6 L+1.9wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+30.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf839…33c5backed No48c172.46$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.341050%5 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+18.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfe7…d95abacked No59c170.05$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$70.054100%4 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+66.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f23…27cbbacked Yes62c161.64$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001729.4%5 W · 12 L-4.1wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-33.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.