Middle East · resolved market
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x46022376a7caf7200baf69ca70235bb4c5bf18447caaa123ea74a2e2da18ceae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,280,816
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,347,087
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,280,816 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 149 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6adc…bebabacked Yes | 0c | 180,197$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a12…9d86backed Yes | 0c | 154,565$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.48 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…689bbacked Yes | 0c | 113,436$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8045…c601backed Yes | 0c | 92,921$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.92 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…6a7fbacked Yes | 0c | 33,207$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9abbbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.31per pick | 3cpaid | +470%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf72a…ac4fbacked Yes | 0c | 29,170$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Yes | 0c | 25,989$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e59…ab31backed Yes | 0c | 24,382$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb6…5ba8backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4c59backed Yes | 6c | 18,068$998 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.4 | 427 | 38.9%166 W · 261 L | +30.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f42…b88fbacked Yes | 2c | 16,672$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.93 | 367 | 50.4%185 W · 182 L | +39.6wins | +0.11per pick | 40cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43dd…a1cfbacked Yes | 0c | 13,993$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b3…6193backed Yes | 0c | 11,726$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.10per pick | 33cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8456…e61abacked Yes | 0c | 10,815$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24d5…c4c0backed Yes | 5c | 10,241$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +54.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbcdb…9362backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e1…1728backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | +260.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7189…a1adbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84fa…1327backed Yes | 20c | 9,905$2,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,005.93 | 143 | 35%50 W · 93 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c3…aa41backed Yes | 1c | 9,300$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked Yes | 0c | 8,530$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.93 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +151.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…4644backed Yes | 0c | 8,303$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfbd…21d2backed Yes | 0c | 7,800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 69 | 8.7%6 W · 63 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3164…3033backed Yes | 0c | 7,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2c4…c131backed Yes | 4c | 6,687$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.21 | 176 | 46.6%82 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc85a…afb1backed Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -50.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x110a…38a8backed Yes | 1c | 6,180$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.87 | 187 | 9.1%17 W · 170 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -43%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…c87cbacked Yes | 2c | 5,500$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 235 | 25.5%60 W · 175 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcff…2a59backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4221…7364backed Yes | 14c | 5,047$687 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$686.59 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -63.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…d09cbacked Yes | 1c | 4,998$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.2 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 15cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 6c | 4,256$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$243.84 | 179 | 31.3%56 W · 123 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7373…7701backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 55 | 41.8%23 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4607…7811backed Yes | 6c | 3,384$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.11 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ba…a074backed Yes | 1c | 3,367$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5e7…c727backed Yes | 2c | 3,198$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2b…b73abacked Yes | 11c | 2,714$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.07 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bed…43cfbacked Yes | 3c | 2,711$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.22per pick | 16cpaid | +49.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1128…cfa5backed Yes | 0c | 2,644$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 56 | 16.1%9 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -44.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x689c…f9adbacked Yes | 2c | 2,515$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd67b…5780backed Yes | 3c | 2,022$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.77 | 382 | 47.6%182 W · 200 L | +37.1wins | +0.10per pick | 38cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc139…abbdbacked Yes | 12c | 1,967$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39d0…4fe8backed Yes | 4c | 1,930$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.63 | 316 | 49.7%157 W · 159 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 8c | 1,849$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.23 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a8…fb82backed Yes | 15c | 1,758$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.02 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 5c | 1,638$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.03 | 776 | 36.9%286 W · 490 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -35.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d61…aa30backed Yes | 7c | 1,506$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad7d…f545backed Yes | 6c | 1,501$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.12 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +224.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7add…f9f4backed Yes | 39c | 1,492$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$582.07 | 238 | 39.9%95 W · 143 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a16…515cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,447$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60a9…5a71backed No | 49c | 1,347$662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$684.33 | 382 | 37.7%144 W · 238 L | +16.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a9d…69fbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,281$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.89 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,106$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.89 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf7…3033backed Yes | 1c | 1,102$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac8f…feddbacked Yes | 1c | 1,100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 210 | 34.3%72 W · 138 L | +9.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8a6…644bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,100$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.9 | 194 | 28.9%56 W · 138 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd486…2287backed Yes | 12c | 1,076$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.11 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -73.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e5…cb25backed Yes | 2c | 1,062$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Yes | 8c | 1,018$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.96 | 60 | 18.3%11 W · 49 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x983c…385dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc97a…44d7backed Yes | 5c | 967.29$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.1 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03ac…4f55backed Yes | 8c | 928.28$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcba0…97bfbacked No | 77c | 905.99$697 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.78 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x31d5…718dbacked Yes | 3c | 822.28$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03c8…0e01backed Yes | 6c | 800$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.69 | 78 | 16.7%13 W · 65 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2a…58afbacked Yes | 3c | 775.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 174 | 14.4%25 W · 149 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc048…57bcbacked Yes | 6c | 732.09$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c19…f9cdbacked Yes | 11c | 725.28$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.68 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7059…9549backed Yes | 12c | 723.39$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.23 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.5wins | +0.19per pick | 35cpaid | +32.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0489…ddf7backed No | 70c | 627.21$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.29 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 18c | 565.64$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.18 | 96 | 26%25 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x382c…a0d7backed Yes | 11c | 500$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.12 | 36 | 25%9 W · 27 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30b2…9e25backed Yes | 6c | 476.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.24 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc4…f44fbacked No | 72c | 440.56$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.17per pick | 44cpaid | -50.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…5c00backed Yes | 4c | 417.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…aeedbacked Yes | 10c | 410.23$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd74d…ff5ebacked Yes | 10c | 400$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x92d0…269ebacked No | 32c | 365$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.44 | 409 | 39.6%162 W · 247 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…7d33backed Yes | 28c | 362.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f1…73cdbacked Yes | 27c | 346.4$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.51 | 563 | 36.6%206 W · 357 L | +44.4wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6c…00b9backed Yes | 6c | 320$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b72…6dbebacked Yes | 9c | 300$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 228 | 46.1%105 W · 123 L | +22.6wins | +0.10per pick | 36cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…5c31backed Yes | 7c | 298.51$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0060…4cc4backed Yes | 11c | 280$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 12c | 262.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x101e…dcc1backed Yes | 10c | 260.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6286…f59cbacked Yes | 5c | 257.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 255 | 18%46 W · 209 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90be…c800backed Yes | 30c | 257.26$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.96 | 153 | 31.4%48 W · 105 L | -7.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d45…020fbacked Yes | 5c | 255$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 4c | 250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d51…6f1fbacked No | 78c | 238.61$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.59 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e1…ab0fbacked No | 31c | 219.85$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.85 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9e…f5f1backed No | 39c | 209.98$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.79 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d24…43d9backed Yes | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5d…185dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf839…33c5backed No | 48c | 172.46$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfe7…d95abacked No | 59c | 170.05$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +66.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f23…27cbbacked Yes | 62c | 161.64$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.24per pick | 54cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 63. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 9?this page
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 10?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 12?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 13?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 16?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 17?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 18?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 1?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 22?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 24?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 25?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 26?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 28?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 29?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 31?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 4?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 5?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 8?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on December 9?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 10?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 11?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 12?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 13?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 14?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 15?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 16?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 17?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 18?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 19?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 1?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 20?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 21?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 22?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 23?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 24?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 25?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 26?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 27?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 28?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 29?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 2?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 30?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 3?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?Yes won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 5?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 6?No won
- Will Israel strike Gaza on November 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.