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Wallet 0x838c…5252
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x838cb8be835a13ba35ddb433a48c1e00f5c35252
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$2,208 staked over 62 qualified picks in 14 categories, 7 of 14 below 50.
Best category
Ukraine
$295 staked over 5 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full Ukraine boardSecond best
Middle East
$983 staked over 20 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.04 per pick.
See the full Middle East boardThird best
Us Politics
$91 staked over 5 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.02 per pick.
See the full Us Politics boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be -$50 tailing 1 Ukraine pick (0 W · 1 L) at $50 each: -100% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Ukraine picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Record by category14 Categories
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Ukrainelast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $295 | —no start of play | 8 dresells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | +0.3197% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 97% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6 | +0.32 | 48c | +54.6% | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Middle East Inactivelast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT | $983 | —no start of play | 3 dto the end, median over 32 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0780% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 80% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 9 of 20 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +1.7 | +0.09 | 36c | -26.7% | 54 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Us Politics Inactivelast settled Oct 13, 2025, EDT | $91 | —no start of play | 23 h 08to the end, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.11113% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 113% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 4 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.5 | +0.10 | 30c | -25.5% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| China Taiwan Inactivelast settled Jan 19, 2025, EST | $62 | —no start of play | 2 h 35resells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.36100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4 | +0.36 | 64c | +56.2% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Commodities Inactivelast settled Sep 18, 2026, EDT | $20 | —no start of play | 5 dresells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.30100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3 | +0.30 | 70c | +42.9% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Venezuela Inactivelast settled Jan 15, 2026, EST | $56 | —no start of play | 15 h 39to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1297% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 97% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2 | +0.12 | 38c | +8.2% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Champions League Inactivelast settled Mar 12, 2025, EDT | $70 | —too few: 3 picks | 5 h 41to the end, median over 19 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03119% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 119% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1 | +0.03 | 22c | -60.9% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Olympics Inactivelast settled Aug 11, 2024, EDT | $121 | —no start of play | 18 h 38to the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 50c | -32.3% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NBA Inactivelast settled May 18, 2025, EDT | $11 | —too few: 1 pick | 5 h 32to the end, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0 | -0.01 | 1c | -100% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Tennis Inactivelast settled Aug 18, 2026, EDT | $45 | —too few: 2 picks | 7 h 18to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1 | -0.04 | 54c | -3.8% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Tweets Inactivelast settled Jan 13, 2026, EST | $57 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 41 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2 | -0.06 | 31c | -12.1% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Boxing Inactivelast settled Nov 16, 2024, EST | $56 | —no start of play | 13 h 23to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.18no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4 | -0.19 | 19c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Sep 18, 2024, EDT | $15 | —no start of play | 2 dto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.43no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4 | -0.43 | 43c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Weather Inactivelast settled Feb 4, 2026, EST | $327 | —no start of play | 2 dto the end, median over 19 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | -0.14no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 12 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.8 | -0.15 | 40c | -55.2% | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 1
- What they are worth now
- $93bought for $51
- Settled, not yet cashed
- at least 50worth $27
Its one running position
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by October 31, 2026? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 97.63 | 52c | 95c | $93 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of at least 50 (we keep the 50 biggest per wallet, so a wallet at exactly that number is holding more than we counted). These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iran-Oman Hormuz Agreement by September 30? (opens in a new tab)backed No · settled | 16.13 | 62c | $16 | Counted |
| Market 0x006d…4bd4backed outcome 1 | 11.27 | 71c | $11 | Not read yet |
| Knicks vs. Celtics (opens in a new tab)backed Knicks · settled | 5,000 | 0c | $0 | Never scored |
| Celtics vs. Knicks (opens in a new tab)backed Knicks · settled | 3,000 | 0c | $0 | Never scored |
| Will Olympiakos win the 2025–26 Champions League? (opens in a new tab)backed Yes · settled | 2,000 | 0c | $0 | Never scored |
Do these count towards the record above? 1 does: the wallet holds a scored pick on that market, already in the table above. 3 never will. TailMyPicks scored those markets, and this wallet’s position on them did not clear the bar: too small, bought above the price cap, or hedged away. 1 is not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about that market, so it is neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.