TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfb24…bffd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
71
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 39.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT2740.7%11 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-16.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.49
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)backed Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.08
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athleticsbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.53
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5)backed Miami Marlins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.19
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$19.64
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Oriolesbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked New York Yankees · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$33.83
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 8.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$31
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padresbacked New York Mets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$18.25
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Bravesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.28
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 10.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.5
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.94
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangersbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$31.55
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigersbacked Detroit Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$13
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacksbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$39.45
Spread: Atlanta Braves (-1.5)backed Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$31.22
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Philliesbacked San Diego Padres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewersbacked San Francisco Giants · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$22.1
Spread: New York Yankees (-1.5)backed Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$23.94
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$14.67
Kansas City Royals vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.13
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+30.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.02
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+216.6%+$70.33
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+220.7%+$59.7
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+132.4%+$14.61
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.81
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+81.1%+$11.46
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+66.2%+$12.03
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+122.4%+$14.69
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.64
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.4
All 11 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 14, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.11per pick64cpaid+22.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 8, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+24.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.5
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+203%+$54.82
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT+121.3%+$34.35
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.54
Spread: Spurs (-3.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+123.2%+$17.82
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
All 6 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+125.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 16, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jun 7, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-35.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Flavio Cobolli win the 2026 Men's French Open?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.45
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverevbacked Alexander Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$8.74
All 2 picks, newest first.
WNBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
WNBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in WNBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: New York Liberty (-10.5)backed New York Liberty · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$19.17
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+72.1%+$21.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+64.7%+$14.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Aurora (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.5
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.