Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x428f8df67f2316c65f73023098c069038fd3338936bd8d72253ba8548f390767

Rebuilt 3 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 29, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $7,007
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $7,526

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,007 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb113…8bc6backed No	64c	698.78$447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$251.56	318	51.9%165 W · 153 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd220…fc0bbacked Yes	17c	571.49$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.93	104	32.7%34 W · 70 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d5b…7744backed No	67c	449.25$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$149.25	49	57.1%28 W · 21 L	+1.7wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed Yes	36c	440$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x551d…9326backed Yes	36c	436.11$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157	55	43.6%24 W · 31 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	43cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5494…faacbacked Yes	48c	418.26$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	50%4 W · 4 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes	33c	299.25$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.75	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3a…9e14backed No	78c	230$179 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.6	61	27.9%17 W · 44 L	-4.3wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad1b…1d65backed No	66c	230$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.2	92	59.8%55 W · 37 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	61cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	37c	187.62$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.12	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed No	55c	185.59$102 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$84.07	185	38.9%72 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed Yes	16c	118.4$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.38	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	55c	109.09$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.09	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e78…ec03backed No	56c	106.91$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.91	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	26cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb326…d18bbacked Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	48	41.7%20 W · 28 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	40cpaid	-8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee03…6edbbacked No	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	168	54.8%92 W · 76 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6f…64b6backed No	52c	100$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed No	52c	90$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.2	260	37.3%97 W · 163 L	-6.6wins	-0.03per pick	40cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a59…a364backed Yes	23c	80$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	-1.9wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-44.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5254…891bbacked Yes	36c	75$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	38	34.2%13 W · 25 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	37cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed Yes	45c	74.09$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.04	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	63c	70$44 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$25.9	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4fa8…d720backed Yes	38c	66.15$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	60	8.3%5 W · 55 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-72%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7243…83f0backed No	55c	66.03$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.71	55	49.1%27 W · 28 L	+4.2wins	+0.08per pick	41cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4435…786fbacked Yes	33c	59.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	128	47.7%61 W · 67 L	+0.4wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd94a…4786backed Yes	20c	58.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.64	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked No	62c	57.62$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.9	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x7420…fc53backed Yes	33c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-3.1wins	-0.44per pick	44cpaid	-100%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No	52c	50$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	116	36.2%42 W · 74 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59d6…0704backed Yes	35c	49.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	40	42.5%17 W · 23 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	42cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa75c…895ebacked Yes	34c	49.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	78	38.5%30 W · 48 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	41cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	34c	49.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked Yes	35c	49.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc049…d4b9backed No	55c	45.45$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.45	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked No	53c	44.14$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.75	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a51…05adbacked Yes	39c	42.85$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.71	63	65.1%41 W · 22 L	+6.9wins	+0.11per pick	54cpaid	+18%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	65c	40.45$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.98	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes	33c	40.01$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	149	20.8%31 W · 118 L	-3.9wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ad9…0eaebacked No	64c	40$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.6	42	57.1%24 W · 18 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	60cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x211a…6ef4backed Yes	45c	40$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.8	60	36.7%22 W · 38 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e88…bd30backed Yes	47c	39.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	104	54.8%57 W · 47 L	+4.2wins	+0.04per pick	51cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d34…3e28backed No	65c	38.46$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.46	28	78.6%22 W · 6 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	63cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xbbe4…2a32backed No	64c	31.06$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.06	32	53.1%17 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	56cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked No	50c	29.03$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.52	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	41cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	80c	25.7$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.2	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x82fb…bed6backed No	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	59	44.1%26 W · 33 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x905d…2c17backed No	62c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.6	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	-1.4wins	-0.15per pick	60cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc318…d82abacked No	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-1.0wins	-0.14per pick	57cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed No	61c	20$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.8	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-12.2wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No	63c	20$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	117	48.7%57 W · 60 L	-15.0wins	-0.13per pick	62cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event