Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7b7c2e660bed2db4eb6e0a865646783665e6e7a388a649f28d6c35c36b15a1fe

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $4,777
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $4,649

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,777 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb113…8bc6backed No	19c	443.99$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.04	318	51.9%165 W · 153 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	17c	411.95$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.23	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8833…3ea1backed Yes	79c	244.54$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.64	617	52%321 W · 296 L	-13.4wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x958d…3501backed No	22c	231.77$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.99	403	55.3%223 W · 180 L	-0.8wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6622…25d5backed Yes	80c	207.09$166 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$41.42	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+2.2wins	+0.24per pick	53cpaid	+47.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc0b2…a23dbacked Yes	78c	200$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	57cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd312…7236backed No	17c	199.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	37	35.1%13 W · 24 L	+1.4wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…87cfbacked Yes	78c	199.18$156 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.88	173	40.5%70 W · 103 L	+11.1wins	+0.06per pick	34cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5555…823bbacked Yes	76c	176.46$134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42.35	50	64%32 W · 18 L	+6.1wins	+0.12per pick	52cpaid	+45.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f59…a956backed Yes	80c	165.16$132 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.03	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	74cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2953…2ed5backed Yes	71c	145.08$103 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$42	151	44.4%67 W · 84 L	-7.5wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71a5…b594backed No	23c	139$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.48	185	38.9%72 W · 113 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-12%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed No	19c	112.37$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.55	148	39.2%58 W · 90 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1da…0370backed No	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	36.8%7 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed No	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf35…9a45backed No	14c	88.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-78.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No	23c	88.09$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1e3…b6d0backed No	17c	80$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	64	26.6%17 W · 47 L	-12.2wins	-0.19per pick	46cpaid	-56.6%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0x1075…19c1backed No	18c	80$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.15	82	18.3%15 W · 67 L	-6.0wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe904…44e9backed No	17c	80$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	399	51.6%206 W · 193 L	+4.7wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked No	15c	75.73$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.36	199	29.1%58 W · 141 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e08…e99bbacked No	21c	71.55$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	138	55.1%76 W · 62 L	+6.2wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+8.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x168f…9e00backed No	21c	70$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.47	235	43%101 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	22c	70$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.4	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea28…3a0bbacked No	17c	65.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	83	43.4%36 W · 47 L	+3.6wins	+0.04per pick	39cpaid	-4.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0f99…6734backed No	23c	60$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	116	36.2%42 W · 74 L	-7.6wins	-0.07per pick	43cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No	19c	55.55$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	120	38.3%46 W · 74 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	38c	52.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes	80c	50$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	116	32.8%38 W · 78 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	77c	50$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6238…57c8backed No	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-4.2wins	-0.17per pick	29cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6406…bc04backed Yes	78c	49.99$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	109	66.1%72 W · 37 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	64cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x167a…91d5backed No	23c	46.61$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.72	36	55.6%20 W · 16 L	+4.4wins	+0.12per pick	43cpaid	+93.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x3b30…100fbacked No	25c	43.19$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.95	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.3wins	-0.13per pick	31cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	79c	42$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.88	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed Yes	78c	41.49$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.13	162	46.9%76 W · 86 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	48cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed No	32c	40.4$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.1	423	36.9%156 W · 267 L	-5.7wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-20.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d34…3e28backed Yes	79c	31.63$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.62	28	78.6%22 W · 6 L	+4.4wins	+0.16per pick	63cpaid	+25.5%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c12…91fcbacked Yes	77c	25$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.8	63	71.4%45 W · 18 L	+9.4wins	+0.15per pick	56cpaid	+25.9%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes	76c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.8	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c65…845dbacked Yes	51c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.8	27	66.7%18 W · 9 L	+1.5wins	+0.06per pick	61cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes	75c	20$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5	764	45.9%351 W · 413 L	-10.6wins	-0.01per pick	47cpaid	0%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	75c	14$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.5	427	37.2%159 W · 268 L	-15.2wins	-0.04per pick	41cpaid	-25.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Lautaro Martínez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event