TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x97a7…0cba

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2445.8%11 W · 13 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+28.3%+$6.18
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.03
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT+203.3%+$34.26
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.21
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+54.7%+$11.32
Israel strike on Yemen by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$5.02
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+152.2%+$37.41
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.18
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.89
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+117.2%+$45.36
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$10.4
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.29
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.48
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+372.3%+$163.76
Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.27
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.87
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.7
US x Iran meeting by April 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.55
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.86
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+308%+$87.4
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.63
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$3.52
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+30.9%+$3.78
All 24 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST1520%3 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick30cpaid-52.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.94
Nuggets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
Kings vs. Lakersbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.75
Pelicans vs. Clippersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10
76ers vs. Celticsbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$10.35
Trail Blazers vs. Hawksbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.2
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Bucks vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+150%+$15
Cavaliers vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Timberwolves vs. Nuggetsbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+138.1%+$14.5
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.04
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.6
Rockets vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+125.2%+$13.9
Trail Blazers vs. Hornetsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$14.5
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick60cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick58cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+62.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+62.7%+$8.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+59.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Game Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Liquid (+2.5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 28, 2026, EDT+59.5%+$6.38
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: 2nd Half O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$3.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.