TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xfba2…97c1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
73
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 57 out of 100; worst NHL at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 20, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick62cpaid-12.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: paiN vs M80 (BO1) - CS Asia Championships Group Abacked paiN · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.28
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffsbacked G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.14
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5)backed G2 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.06
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group Abacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.19
Counter-Strike: Monte vs magic (BO3) - PGL Astana Group Stagebacked Monte · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$7.56
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality - Map 3 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+37.9%+$7.53
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - BLAST Rivals Group Abacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+38.2%+$7.61
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO5) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$3.55
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality - Map 2 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+74.5%+$18.25
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs FURIA - Map 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$15
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffsbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$11.55
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality - Map 1 Winnerbacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$6.75
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.53
Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stagebacked FOKUS · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.1
All 14 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.24
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+197.7%+$22.97
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+91.6%+$13.39
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+35.8%+$6.05
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.2
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+26.2%+$10.05
Israel x Hezbollah ceasefire by April 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+37.4%+$10.54
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.57
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.83
All 9 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs XLG Gaming - Map 3 Winnerbacked EDward Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+63.3%+$9.43
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Omegabacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.28
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffsbacked Fnatic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.17
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Eternal Fire - Map 2 Winnerbacked Eternal Fire · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.91
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffsbacked Global Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+265.7%+$36.32
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffsbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+95.5%+$10.69
Valorant: DRX vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffsbacked DRX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.26
Valorant: Rex Regum Qeon vs Global Esports (BO3) - VCT Pacific Playoffsbacked Global Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+92.7%+$23.09
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Division One (BO5) - VCL North America: Stage 2 Playoffsbacked Division One · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.24
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Apr 22, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.39per pick41cpaid+87.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.28per pick52cpaid+69.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Serie A — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 21, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-49.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick66cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+87.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+53.3%+$6.05
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+120.9%+$13.22
All 2 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 5, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Cricket — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Chennai Super Kingsbacked Chennai Super Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.34
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Mumbai Indiansbacked Delhi Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+107.6%+$25.58
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Cavaliers (-5.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$16.46
Spread: Magic (-15.5)backed Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.79
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.15per pick65cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.89
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+88.3%+$9.89
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 21, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.69
Ducks vs. Oilersbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.68
All 2 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved May 30, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Marinersbacked Seattle Mariners · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$11.07
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+72.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+72.1%+$10.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$3.19
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.71per pick71cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.32
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.