TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xea9b…0fd2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
66
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 57 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 57 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+28.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+160.5%+$192.56
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$130
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Exact Score: Any Other Score?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$23.49
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$21.54
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$37.72
Will United States win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$18.39
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$27.62
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$26.4
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$5.06
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$24.63
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$384Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$384.19
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$339Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$339
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$390Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+37%+$144.25
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$390
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+51.6%+$41.29
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+39.1%+$15.62
France, UK, or Germany military action against Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$13.17
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.8
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.85
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$280Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$280.37
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+69.5%+$24.95
All 12 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved May 6, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$300Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$300
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$635Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$635.22
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$300Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$191.8
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$302Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+37%+$111.71
FC Barcelona vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$235Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$235.1
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$287Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$286.98
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$193Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$277.62
Real Madrid CF vs. FC Bayern München: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$295Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+41.1%+$121.05
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT+56.1%+$336.32
Manchester City FC vs. Real Madrid CF: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$75.44
All 11 picks, newest first.
La Ligalast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-14.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Elche CF vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$19.18
Will FC Barcelona vs. Real Madrid CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$88.5
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$725Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+34%+$246.53
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$191.48
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$196Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$84.17
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$652.82
Real Madrid CF vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT+25.4%+$152.12
All 10 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will February 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+53.4%+$21.36
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+40.1%+$10.01
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$53.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Butterfly win Best Animated Short Film at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$45
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.