Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf856cde302ea2653099a41a9482d63315b89ef9693c8b7d21e9931ae94628ed0

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 27, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $14,447
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $13,773

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,447 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xd2ae…f36bbacked No	28c	1,231$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$348.75	1,306	44.7%584 W · 722 L	-9.6wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x606d…1aafbacked Yes	75c	1,148$857 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.82	74	56.8%42 W · 32 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	-9.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8bf3…6077backed No	29c	626.01$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.5	481	40.1%193 W · 288 L	-17.3wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-14.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe8c4…395dbacked Yes	72c	592$426 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.76	406	49.8%202 W · 204 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb437…cfb3backed No	22c	508.56$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.99	124	54%67 W · 57 L	+7.9wins	+0.06per pick	48cpaid	+16.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x54d1…13f4backed Yes	74c	507.6$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$132.7	285	47.7%136 W · 149 L	-12.7wins	-0.04per pick	52cpaid	-16%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfea3…d227backed Yes	71c	500$355 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$145	209	55.5%116 W · 93 L	+12.8wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcba6…e258backed Yes	75c	500$375 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+1.3wins	+0.21per pick	46cpaid	+1.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No	23c	455.89$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.68	2,524	42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L	-10.1wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb046…857cbacked No	23c	382.34$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.94	157	40.8%64 W · 93 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x75f0…2b66backed No	20c	350.09$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.16	290	30.7%89 W · 201 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec8c…8961backed No	27c	341.78$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.74	36	52.8%19 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Yes	76c	326$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$79.38	431	45.2%195 W · 236 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6f…64b6backed No	23c	309.99$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.3	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.08per pick	36cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd277…73febacked No	23c	306.94$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.6	44	54.5%24 W · 20 L	+4.2wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+31%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdd1f…ea7abacked No	25c	303.04$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.76	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	56cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x529d…6381backed Yes	75c	299.98$226 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$74	26	61.5%16 W · 10 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	51cpaid	+14.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb410…7736backed Yes	72c	271.07$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$76.9	139	57.6%80 W · 59 L	+18.4wins	+0.13per pick	44cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0xadaf…6eb9backed Yes	77c	259.74$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.74	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e80…631bbacked Yes	75c	251.83$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$62.55	486	36.6%178 W · 308 L	-48.4wins	-0.10per pick	47cpaid	-32.9%equal weight	39-0.09 edge/pick
0x9cdd…3e97backed Yes	78c	242.81$189 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.42	81	61.7%50 W · 31 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	62cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No	28c	241.25$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.52	662	39.6%262 W · 400 L	-48.1wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No	30c	226.64$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.57	58	32.8%19 W · 39 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x933c…a8c6backed No	25c	221.58$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.08	120	38.3%46 W · 74 L	+7.4wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+31.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x569b…c66ebacked Yes	68c	219.69$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.1	144	22.2%32 W · 112 L	-10.5wins	-0.07per pick	30cpaid	-42.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7cbe…c4b7backed No	31c	203.31$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.89	888	38.2%339 W · 549 L	+37.2wins	+0.04per pick	34cpaid	+9.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x329d…5a92backed No	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	2,576	46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L	+35.9wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5503…30a6backed No	22c	200$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc67b…b024backed Yes	66c	198.99$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.66	9	55.6%5 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes	75c	195.83$147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$48.96	96	44.8%43 W · 53 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ca0…7497backed No	28c	175.04$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.81	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	35cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb82…4bf9backed No	29c	153.47$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.25	35	65.7%23 W · 12 L	+6.3wins	+0.18per pick	48cpaid	+50.5%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0xb47e…c602backed Yes	77c	150$116 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.5	119	45.4%54 W · 65 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1959…0b3fbacked No	20c	150$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.5	56	50%28 W · 28 L	+5.5wins	+0.10per pick	40cpaid	+68.1%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No	28c	136.73$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.17	412	31.6%130 W · 282 L	-5.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2d…6db9backed Yes	77c	130.19$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.19	81	39.5%32 W · 49 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x081a…66d0backed No	24c	125$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.44	147	39.5%58 W · 89 L	-3.8wins	-0.03per pick	42cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x357c…7dfebacked No	15c	123$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	35	40%14 W · 21 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	33cpaid	+46.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed No	31c	114.85$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	145	34.5%50 W · 95 L	-11.4wins	-0.08per pick	42cpaid	-26.2%equal weight	43-0.07 edge/pick
0x89df…f8d0backed No	45c	112$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	142	45.8%65 W · 77 L	+4.4wins	+0.03per pick	43cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6e…7f53backed Yes	67c	105$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$35	101	31.7%32 W · 69 L	-6.8wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No	28c	100$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	281	48.4%136 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0cb1…a76cbacked Yes	73c	100$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$27	249	54.2%135 W · 114 L	+40.3wins	+0.16per pick	38cpaid	+29.9%equal weight	66+0.15 edge/pick
0xab2d…b1aabacked No	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	165	40.6%67 W · 98 L	-7.7wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked No	27c	100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	226	50.9%115 W · 111 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb251…6f5bbacked No	25c	100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	130	45.4%59 W · 71 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	+1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb673…329abacked Yes	70c	100$70 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30	22	45.5%10 W · 12 L	+3.1wins	+0.14per pick	31cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8a39…14c8backed Yes	75c	96$72 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$24	34	47.1%16 W · 18 L	-1.5wins	-0.05per pick	52cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d65…7d4abacked No	24c	83.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	20%9 W · 36 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-5.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc049…d4b9backed Yes	73c	81.83$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.83	33	51.5%17 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb113…8bc6backed No	24c	80$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	318	51.9%165 W · 153 L	+16.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5ad8…43e2backed No	27c	80$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.6	49	34.7%17 W · 32 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d57…bd62backed No	39c	76.47$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	16	50%8 W · 8 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+13.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9e83…d461backed No	40c	75.61$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	62	46.8%29 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	51cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9073…13b3backed No	21c	70.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	72	48.6%35 W · 37 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d7…6530backed Yes	73c	66$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$17.82	236	40.3%95 W · 141 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e7d…ca41backed No	26c	60$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	73	39.7%29 W · 44 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes	76c	56.92$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.9	148	39.2%58 W · 90 L	-5.3wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc602…7fc1backed No	26c	54.07$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	457	36.3%166 W · 291 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	39cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5576…0a66backed No	33c	51$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.83	19	26.3%5 W · 14 L	-3.3wins	-0.17per pick	44cpaid	-33.5%equal weight	42-0.08 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed No	20c	50$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	293	7.5%22 W · 271 L	-13.2wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf33e…0ab8backed No	34c	50$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	159	42.1%67 W · 92 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	43cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2d82…3a1bbacked No	30c	50$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.94	52	53.8%28 W · 24 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	59cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x78ae…143abacked Yes	72c	49.99$36 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14	116	32.8%38 W · 78 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3088…2391backed Yes	73c	48$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	85	54.1%46 W · 39 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	56cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x37ac…54fcbacked No	26c	47.08$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.17per pick	63cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x64be…c653backed Yes	77c	43.34$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.15	54	44.4%24 W · 30 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	44cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe3ee…c453backed No	31c	43.25$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	34cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30b8…fbf3backed Yes	79c	40$31 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	29	62.1%18 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	63cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No	29c	38.25$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.09	1,067	49.1%524 W · 543 L	+7.4wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59e4…3130backed Yes	71c	34.48$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10	18	66.7%12 W · 6 L	+2.0wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes	77c	33$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.59	111	56.8%63 W · 48 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	58cpaid	-4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6195…388abacked Yes	74c	31$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.06	177	54.8%97 W · 80 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	57cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes	72c	30$22 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.4	130	51.5%67 W · 63 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	52cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a51…bf4cbacked Yes	73c	24.51$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.62	112	55.4%62 W · 50 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4916…f56fbacked Yes	68c	23.02$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.44	85	42.4%36 W · 49 L	-11.7wins	-0.14per pick	56cpaid	-25%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5cf8…69abbacked Yes	78c	20$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.4	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a96…b382backed Yes	76c	19$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.56	142	57.7%82 W · 60 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	+2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4725…ba00backed Yes	70c	16.46$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.94	5	100%5 W · 0 L	+1.4wins	+0.28per pick	72cpaid	+40.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa68d…eab5backed Yes	73c	14.59$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.94	76	51.3%39 W · 37 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa667…ceb3backed Yes	76c	14.35$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.44	184	53.8%99 W · 85 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	54cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x89a6…02cfbacked Yes	77c	14.29$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3.29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	42cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x809c…a50bbacked Yes	80c	12.5$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2.5	11	72.7%8 W · 3 L	+1.9wins	+0.17per pick	56cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. Showing 60 of 146. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Romelu Lukaku score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event