TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x242c…e18c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
85
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Ncaa Basketball, grading 58 out of 100 (+0.07 per pick).

Best Category Ncaa Basketball at 58 out of 100; worst NBA at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT3933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
NBA — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Clippersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$26.6
Spread: Thunder (-9.5)backed Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$200.26
Lakers vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$42.5
Hawks vs. Magicbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+73.6%+$39.23
Spread: Clippers (-5.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.5
Raptors vs. Pistonsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.38
Knicks vs. Rocketsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.36
Suns vs. Magicbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.06
Pistons vs. Thunder: O/U 219.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+116.1%+$37.02
Timberwolves vs. Mavericksbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.29
76ers vs. Heatbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$121.32
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.07
Spread: Trail Blazers (-16.5)backed Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+78.8%+$11.19
Magic vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+136.6%+$19.67
Celtics vs. Hornetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$14.25
Spread: Clippers (-17.5)backed Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.75
Heat vs. Pacersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.75
Spread: Heat (-9.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.87
Spread: Heat (-8.5)backed Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$76.34
Pistons vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.1
Spread: Warriors (-12.5)backed Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.18
Spread: Nuggets (-19.5)backed Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.3
Spread: Nuggets (-18.5)backed Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+102.2%+$45.5
Jazz vs. Nuggets: O/U 246.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+114.6%+$38.38
Hawks vs. Celticsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.45
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackhawks vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$14
Sabres vs. Senatorsbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$21.6
Bruins vs. Panthersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$24.4
Jets vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.64
Devils vs. Rangersbacked Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+55%+$8.87
Maple Leafs vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.01
Stars vs. Flyersbacked Stars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19
Senators vs. Lightning: O/U 6.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+115.7%+$24.14
Panthers vs. Islandersbacked Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
Red Wings vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$58
Avalanche vs. Penguinsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$194Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+29.7%+$57.57
Blue Jackets vs. Flyersbacked Blue Jackets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$228Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+51.7%+$117.86
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT875%6 W · 2 L+2.4wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+89.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+503.7%+$501.97
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-7.5)backed Michigan Wolverines · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT+116%+$19.61
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverinesbacked Tennessee Volunteers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.55
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Iowa Hawkeyesbacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+47.4%+$19.3
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Iowa State Cyclonesbacked Iowa State Cyclones · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.95
Michigan State Spartans vs. Connecticut Huskiesbacked Connecticut Huskies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$8.95
St. John's Red Storm vs. Duke Blue Devilsbacked Duke Blue Devils · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+100%+$22.5
Illinois Fighting Illini vs. Houston Cougarsbacked Illinois Fighting Illini · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 27, 2026, EDT+95.2%+$198.32
All 8 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 8, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-45.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-26.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+66.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+117.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+57.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$30.46
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$45.14
All 2 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Apr 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.62per pick39cpaid+159.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Team Vitality - Game 2 Winnerbacked Karmine Corp · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+159.7%+$24.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+75.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Athletics vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Toronto Blue Jays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+75.9%+$12.47
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$4.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
EdgeX FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Miami Open: Elena Rybakina vs Jessica Pegulabacked Jessica Pegula · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Aurora vs PARIVISION (BO3) - ESL One Birmingham Playoffsbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.03
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved Mar 29, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Kolkata Knight Ridersbacked Kolkata Knight Riders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.75
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Apr 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2026-04-03?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.75
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.