TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x369f…d094

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
62
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Fed Rates, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Fed Rates at 51 out of 100; worst Token Launches at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 27, 2025, EST2619.2%5 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-26.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$42.3
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+273.1%+$92.23
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$78
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$64.4
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$34.54
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$72.4
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$71.6
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$47.3
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$355.2
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$110Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+525.3%+$579.44
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$63.48
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$23.44
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$34.2
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$40.8
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+408.8%+$177.96
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$166.92
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$167
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$135Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$135.32
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$77.3
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$22.4
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$82Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+156.7%+$128.2
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$22.3
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$41.24
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$111Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+44%+$48.9
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT2138.1%8 W · 13 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick47cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$128Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+64.1%+$82
EdgeX FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$54
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$90Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$89.99
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$51
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$49
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$24
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$112
Zama FDV above $800M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$80Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+62.1%+$49.8
Fogo FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST-100%-$67.5
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+37%+$26.64
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST+44.9%+$12.4
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$134.4
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$94Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$94
Will lighter perform an airdrop by December 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$34
Over $30M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$16
Over $70M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+179.1%+$77
Over $100M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+110.5%+$63
Over $15M committed to the Gensyn public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+29.9%+$23
Over $300M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST+40.1%+$28.6
Over $250M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$46
Over $200M committed to the Monad public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$13.6
All 21 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-29.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST40%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+11.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Andrew Tate vs. Chase Demoorbacked Demoor · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+123.1%+$55.18
Will Mike Tyson win his boxing match against Jake Paul?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2024, EST-100%-$19.19
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+49.3%+$6.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Solana reach $200 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+47.1%+$9.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$27.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 22, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$28.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$54.15
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.