TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xc098…c066

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
121
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 55 out of 100; worst MLB at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 10, 2026, EDT4065%26 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 40 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$26.51
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
76ers vs. Knicksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
Celtics vs. 76ersbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.65
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.21
Nuggets vs. Timberwolvesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.41
Knicks vs. Hawksbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$16.57
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.48
Warriors vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$6.92
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.21
Magic vs. Celticsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.51
Hornets vs. Knicksbacked Hornets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$8.03
Hawks vs. Heatbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.62
Hawks vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.49
Timberwolves vs. Magicbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.34
Rockets vs. Sunsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$16.57
Hornets vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.82
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggetsbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$6.22
Celtics vs. Hawksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.71
Showing 25 of 40 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT3655.6%20 W · 16 L-0.2wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 36 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+96.1%+$19.22
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.33
Canadiens vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$12.86
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+70.5%+$14.1
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Ducks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+75.4%+$15.09
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Ducks vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Canadiens vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 6, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
Wild vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Sabres vs. Bruinsbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+100%+$19.4
Penguins vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.44
Stars vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.3
Hurricanes vs. Senatorsbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$15.92
Utah vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.01
Bruins vs. Sabresbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$13.01
Canadiens vs. Lightningbacked Lightning · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.57
Kings vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.42
Flyers vs. Penguinsbacked Penguins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Showing 25 of 36 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT2365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.2wins+0.10per pick56cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will England win on 2026-07-15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$21.54
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+127.3%+$25.45
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$12.26
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will United States win on 2026-07-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Will Norway win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$24.59
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$12.79
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$7.78
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$27.62
Will England win on 2026-06-17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 23 picks, newest first.
Lollast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennislast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+13.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLBlast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-47.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
MLB — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
San Francisco Giants vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Cleveland Guardians · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$5.63
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kia Tigersbacked Kia Tigers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Chicago Cubs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 3 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Liquid (BO3) - Esports World Cup Survivalbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Mlslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Mls — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Mls, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2026-08-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$8.57
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.9%+$6.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Cricket Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
T20 Blast: Kent vs Sussexbacked Sussex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.