TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe2ef…f66c

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
91
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 53 out of 100; worst Premier League at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT2958.6%17 W · 12 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 29 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Spurs (-11.5)backed Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Spread: Spurs (-5.5)backed Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$19.92
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+121.1%+$39.32
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 225.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+77.5%+$77.54
Spread: Knicks (-12.5)backed Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$89Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+30.5%+$27.23
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 222.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$26.24
Thunder vs. Spurs: O/U 207.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$13.29
Lakers vs. Clippersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Grizzlies vs. Clippersbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+150%+$15
Warriors vs. Trail Blazersbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 15, 2025, EST+105.7%+$21.13
Spurs vs. Pelicansbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+26.6%+$3.37
Celtics vs. Raptorsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+85.2%+$17.04
Rockets vs. Mavericksbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$17.79
Suns vs. Rocketsbacked Rockets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+72.4%+$14.48
Clippers vs. Grizzliesbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Grizzlies vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$38Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$38
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+300%+$60
Heat vs. Knicksbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Hawks vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$24.84
Raptors vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$16.34
Nuggets vs. Clippersbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+33.3%+$6.67
Bucks vs. Mavericksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+91.1%+$63.75
Showing 25 of 29 picks, newest first.
Premier Leaguelast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT2544%11 W · 14 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-15.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 25 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-08-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$95Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$95
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+35%+$24.5
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$604Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$603.65
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Manchester United FC win on 2025-12-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+58.7%+$37
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST+104.1%+$20.4
Will Chelsea FC win on 2025-12-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2025-12-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$121Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 14, 2025, EST+104.3%+$126.48
Will Wolverhampton Wanderers FC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Arsenal FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST-100%-$102.03
Will Liverpool FC win on 2025-12-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 13, 2025, EST+78.6%+$157.14
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-12-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+194.1%+$38.82
Will Brentford win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+56.3%+$11.25
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+212.5%+$42.51
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$205Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+26.6%+$54.42
Manchester City vs. Liverpool: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Newcastle win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Sunderland AFC vs. Arsenal: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Everton vs. Fulham end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Will Everton win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+37%+$36.99
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
West Ham vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST+104.1%+$20.82
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$689Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$688.67
All 25 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT1172.7%8 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick63cpaid+8.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win on 2026-07-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$28.17
Argentina vs. Cabo Verde: Team to Advancebacked Argentina · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+29.4%+$5.58
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway: Team to Advancebacked Norway · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$15.75
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$20.85
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Croatia vs. Ghana: Croatia O/U 0.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$6.65
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$15.27
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$11.85
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+37.6%+$5.64
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 11 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 9, 2026, EDT1163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+21.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 4 Winnerbacked Bilibili Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
LoL: G2 Esports vs T1 - Game 4 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+112.8%+$20.17
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+150%+$15
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$159Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+28.2%+$44.83
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+132.6%+$26.51
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+44.9%+$8.99
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+49%+$17.72
All 11 picks, newest first.
La Ligalast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayern München win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+29.9%+$5.97
Will Borussia Dortmund win on 2025-11-08?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 2 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.76per pick24cpaid+316.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+316.7%+$544.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$17.61
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Dec 6, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-12-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 6, 2025, EST+44.9%+$8.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.