TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9c44…90e6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: CS2, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category CS2 at 55 out of 100; worst Tennis at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Jun 13, 2026, EDT3548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 35 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Spursbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$35.56
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Spurs vs. Knicksbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$35.22
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$26.51
Spurs vs. Thunderbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.74
Thunder vs. Spursbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+122.2%+$24.44
Cavaliers vs. Knicksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$32.63
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+85.2%+$17.04
Thunder vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Pistons vs. Cavaliersbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Knicks vs. 76ersbacked 76ers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Lakers vs. Rocketsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$31.28
Cavaliers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$31.28
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Magic vs. Pistonsbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.08
Thunder vs. Nuggetsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.27
Cavaliers vs. Hawksbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.29
Pistons vs. Hornetsbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$25.6
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$32.77
Celtics vs. Knicksbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.88
Showing 25 of 35 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT3243.8%14 W · 18 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick48cpaid+7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will England win on 2026-07-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Spain win on 2026-07-10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT+67.4%+$13.47
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-07?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will United States win on 2026-07-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Spain win on 2026-07-06?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will England win on 2026-07-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+150%+$30
Will Brazil win on 2026-07-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+117.4%+$23.48
Will Morocco win on 2026-07-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Colombia win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Portugal win on 2026-07-02?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-01?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$15.71
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$26.51
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$21.54
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will France win on 2026-06-22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$19.7
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$10.77
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT2152.4%11 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
NHL — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanesbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$13.9
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+100%+$20
Hurricanes vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Avalanche vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$20.82
Golden Knights vs. Avalanchebacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+143.9%+$28.78
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+91.1%+$18.21
Golden Knights vs. Ducksbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Sabres vs. Canadiensbacked Sabres · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Avalanche vs. Wildbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Hurricanes vs. Flyersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
AHL: Coachella Valley Firebirds vs. Ontario Reignbacked Ontario Reign · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+84.3%+$16.86
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Henderson Silver Knightsbacked Colorado Eagles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$16.36
Golden Knights vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Sabres vs. Bruinsbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Lightning vs. Canadiensbacked Canadiens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Stars vs. Wildbacked Wild · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.46
Penguins vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$17.93
Kraken vs. Golden Knightsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.3
Senators vs. Rangersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$11.25
All 21 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT1145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Boston Red Sox · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT+72.4%+$14.48
Atlanta Braves vs. St. Louis Cardinalsbacked St. Louis Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT+150%+$15
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Redsbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlinsbacked Texas Rangers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.08
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$11.75
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giantsbacked Arizona Diamondbacks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
Seattle Mariners vs. Athleticsbacked Athletics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardiansbacked Cincinnati Reds · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Baltimore Orioles vs. Washington Nationalsbacked Baltimore Orioles · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Piratesbacked Pittsburgh Pirates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jul 10, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick56cpaid-55.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Tennis — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+73.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFClast resolved Aug 15, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Jun 15, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Cricket Inactivelast resolved Apr 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Cricket — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Cricket, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pakistan Super League: Karachi Kings vs Islamabad Unitedbacked Islamabad United · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$17.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Wichita State Shockers vs. Oklahoma State Cowboysbacked Oklahoma State Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.83
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.