TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x71ba…07a1

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
159
Categories scored
15
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 59 out of 100; worst NHL at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST9031.1%28 W · 62 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 90 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Clippers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Nuggets vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Rockets vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Celtics vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20.7
Lakers vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$12
Pelicans vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$10.85
Raptors vs. Wizardsbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Rockets vs. Heatbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+146.8%+$108.42
Trail Blazers vs. Hornetsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.83
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11.6
Knicks vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10.71
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+177.8%+$19.2
Kings vs. Mavericksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+257.1%+$28.8
Trail Blazers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
Heat vs. 76ersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Hornets vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.25
Rockets vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Spurs vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Wizards vs. Hawksbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.05
Celtics vs. Nuggetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.76
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+141.5%+$24.03
Spurs vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Warriors vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$11.7
Showing 25 of 90 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2860.7%17 W · 11 L+4.4wins+0.16per pick45cpaid+43.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+42.1%+$28.16
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+496.4%+$132.64
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT+221.8%+$22.83
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.54
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.3
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$9.17
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+68.1%+$8.1
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+99.9%+$21.44
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+230.8%+$24.55
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.07
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.2
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+29%+$4.5
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.85
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+59.4%+$11.18
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.9
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.5
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+188.5%+$29.4
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.15
US announces military support of Kurds in Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$202Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$66.18
Will any E.U. country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$18.75
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+157.2%+$78.26
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+273.1%+$134.23
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.09
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1225%3 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.17per pick42cpaid-38.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
NHL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+100%+$12.5
Jets vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.06
Kraken vs. Starsbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Maple Leafs vs. Lightningbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.44
Flyers vs. Capitalsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.25
Kraken vs. Ducksbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Maple Leafs vs. Oilersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+170.3%+$18.9
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Capitals vs. Flyersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+168.2%+$80.6
Avalanche vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$21.5
Kings vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$25.85
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT7100%7 W · 0 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.11per pick44cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+145.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+163.2%+$22.39
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-02-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+127.3%+$28
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffinsbacked Canisius Golden Griffins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$31.17
Wofford Terriers vs. Chattanooga Mocsbacked Wofford Terriers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+107.7%+$28.02
All 2 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Cagliari Calcio win on 2026-02-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$10.25
Will AC Milan win on 2026-02-03?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST+156.4%+$18.3
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+56.7%+$22.24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+36.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+36.8%+$48.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Roland Garros ATP: Quentin Halys vs Mattia Belluccibacked Mattia Bellucci · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.33
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.