TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x96e6…8623

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
140
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Commodities at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
NBA Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST7532%24 W · 51 L-0.3wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 75 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Thunderbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.65
Grizzlies vs. Mavericksbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+185.7%+$19.5
Cavaliers vs. Pistonsbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11.6
Nets vs. Celticsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$10.05
Timberwolves vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Lakers vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+185.7%+$19.5
Kings vs. Mavericksbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+233.3%+$28
Trail Blazers vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
Heat vs. 76ersbacked Heat · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$10.5
Rockets vs. Magicbacked Magic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Spurs vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$12.8
Wizards vs. Hawksbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$11.7
Celtics vs. Nuggetsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.48
Cavaliers vs. Bucksbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+222.6%+$28.11
Spurs vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$12.43
Warriors vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.99
Knicks vs. Cavaliersbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.25
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.22
Thunder vs. Raptorsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+100%+$10
Warriors vs. Pelicansbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST+112.8%+$26.5
Hornets vs. Bullsbacked Bulls · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Celtics vs. Sunsbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.61
Mavericks vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$11.75
76ers vs. Pacersbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Wizards vs. Hawksbacked Wizards · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$11.2
Showing 25 of 75 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2450%12 W · 12 L+2.1wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+19.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 24 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.44
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+41.2%+$16.05
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.2
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.99
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+251%+$118.66
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+463.2%+$203.86
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.82
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.57
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$8.88
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.6
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$72Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+32.5%+$23.22
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.85
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.7
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+55.8%+$25.07
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.1
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.8
US x Iran ceasefire before Trump visits China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+98.5%+$18.7
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+232.5%+$79.18
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.09
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+151.6%+$36.1
Will Qatar strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+177.2%+$228.14
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT+25%+$15
All 24 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-3.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
NHL — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Oilers vs. Ducksbacked Ducks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+527.9%+$97.37
Golden Knights vs. Kingsbacked Golden Knights · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+117.4%+$13.5
Jets vs. Canucksbacked Canucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.25
Avalanche vs. Utahbacked Utah · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.65
Kraken vs. Starsbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.08
Maple Leafs vs. Lightningbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.41
Flyers vs. Capitalsbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$10.02
Kraken vs. Ducksbacked Kraken · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Maple Leafs vs. Oilersbacked Maple Leafs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+170.3%+$18.9
Senators vs. Hurricanesbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
Capitals vs. Flyersbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$11.5
Hurricanes vs. Capitalsbacked Capitals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+138.1%+$17.4
Avalanche vs. Red Wingsbacked Red Wings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$17.2
Kings vs. Flyersbacked Flyers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST-100%-$24.5
All 14 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.24per pick62cpaid+24.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Feb 10, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+66.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+55.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Siena Saints vs. Canisius Golden Griffinsbacked Canisius Golden Griffins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$22.53
Wofford Terriers vs. Chattanooga Mocsbacked Wofford Terriers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+107.8%+$34.73
All 2 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Betis Balompié win on 2026-02-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+156.4%+$18.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$40.79
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+37.5%+$38.92
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-02-06?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$10.09
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.64per pick64cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$108Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$107.88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.