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Wallet 0x99e4…e4c4
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x99e42eb9038705165b22f821e27659c1dc41e4c4
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$5,875,339 staked over 1,248 qualified picks in 26 categories, 17 of 26 below 50.
Best category
Olympics
$80,926 staked over 16 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.06 per pick.
See the full Olympics boardSecond best
NBA
$1,120,266 staked over 155 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.05 per pick.
See the full NBA boardThird best
UFC
$305,675 staked over 74 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.04 per pick.
See the full UFC boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
Nothing to tail here. This wallet has no qualified Olympics picks that settled in the last 30 days, so there was nothing to put a stake on.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Olympics picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Record by category26 Categories
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Olympicslast settled Feb 21, 2026, EST | $80,926 | before 29%in play 71%, over 14 Olympics picks with a start of play; typically bought 29 h 46 after the start | 3 dto the end, median over 63 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 15 of them sold before the market settled | +0.16100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 16 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.5 | +0.16 | 41c | +14.3% | 57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $1,120,266 | before 69%in play 31%, over 153 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 h 17 before the start | 6 h 44to the end, median over 307 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 30 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0694% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 126 of 155 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 155 | 61.9%96 W · 59 L | +9.5 | +0.06 | 56c | +9.2% | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UFClast settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $305,675 | before 22%in play 78%, over 72 UFC picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 25 after the start | 2 h 29to the end, median over 89 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | +0.07123% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 123% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 55 of 74 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 74 | 55.4%41 W · 33 L | +4.3 | +0.06 | 50c | +28.3% | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| F1 Inactivelast settled Aug 23, 2026, EDT | $1,046 | —too few: 6 picks | 8 h 55to the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.09out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 67% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 5 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8 | +0.13 | 54c | +36.1% | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Bundesliga Inactivelast settled Mar 1, 2026, EST | $6,417 | —too few: 2 picks | 3 h 40to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.49157% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 157% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6 | +0.31 | 69c | +45% | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 14, 2026, EDT | $37,464 | —too few: 3 picks | 10 h 17to the end, median over 12 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1475% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 75% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5 | +0.18 | 48c | +14.3% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Mls Inactivelast settled Aug 2, 2026, EDT | $10,661 | —too few: 8 picks | 1 h 03to the end, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 53% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 8 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.5 | +0.06 | 31c | +5.7% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ukraine Inactivelast settled Dec 19, 2025, EST | $134 | —no start of play | 16 h 25resells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.25100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3 | +0.25 | 75c | +33.3% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Euroleague Inactivelast settled Sep 14, 2025, EDT | $1,262 | —no start of play | 4 h 28to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1099% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2 | +0.10 | 40c | +47.1% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Valorantlast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $8,934 | —too few: 7 picks | 6 h 01to the end, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2 | -0.03 | 46c | -28.5% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premier League Inactivelast settled Jan 17, 2026, EST | $25,808 | —too few: 4 picks | 9 h 44to the end, median over 6 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3 | -0.08 | 58c | -10.2% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Tennislast settled Oct 21, 2026, EDT | $160,009 | before 12%in play 88%, over 33 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 21 after the start | 3 h 24to the end, median over 44 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 29 of 36 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.7 | -0.02 | 41c | -13.6% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| College Football Inactivelast settled Sep 12, 2025, EDT | $1,000 | —too few: 1 pick | 4 h 54to the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.47no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5 | -0.48 | 48c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| La Liga Inactivelast settled Sep 13, 2026, EDT | $20,138 | before 54%in play 46%, over 13 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 12 h 43 before the start | 1 dto the end, median over 27 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 10 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.7 | -0.06 | 36c | -29.4% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CS2last settled Oct 24, 2026, EDT | $1,987,773 | before 78%in play 22%, over 392 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 5 h 20 before the start | 9 h 32to the end, median over 429 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 23 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 189 of 392 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 392 | 40.3%158 W · 234 L | -8.5 | -0.02 | 42c | -5.1% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Boxing Inactivelast settled Sep 13, 2026, EDT | $1,152 | —too few: 1 pick | 4 h 17to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.35no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7 | -0.35 | 35c | -100% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Oct 6, 2026, EDT | $795,106 | before 56%in play 44%, over 99 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 min before the start | 4 h 01to the end, median over 168 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 13 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 72 of 103 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 103 | 40.8%42 W · 61 L | -4.7 | -0.05 | 45c | -2.7% | 46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dota2last settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $864,834 | before 74%in play 26%, over 147 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 31 before the start | 6 h 49to the end, median over 174 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | -0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 86 of 147 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 147 | 45.6%67 W · 80 L | -6.5 | -0.04 | 50c | -15.1% | 46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Serie A Inactivelast settled Jan 25, 2026, EST | $15,370 | —too few: 5 picks | 5 h 57to the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.23no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2 | -0.23 | 63c | -41.5% | 46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Lollast settled Oct 14, 2026, EDT | $56,936 | before 93%in play 7%, over 88 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 h 20 before the start | 16 h 19to the end, median over 99 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 35 of 88 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 88 | 33%29 W · 59 L | -4.9 | -0.06 | 39c | -23.3% | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cricket Inactivelast settled Feb 17, 2026, EST | $2,174 | —too few: 6 picks | 11 h 41to the end, median over 8 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.25no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.5 | -0.25 | 25c | -100% | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NFL Inactivelast settled Sep 28, 2026, EDT | $54 | —too few: 4 picks | 16 h 42to the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.38no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5 | -0.39 | 39c | -100% | 44 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| MLBlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $7,048 | —too few: 3 picks | 3 h 38to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.50no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6 | -0.52 | 52c | -100% | 44 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Europa Conference Leaguelast settled Oct 15, 2026, EDT | $12,354 | —too few: 4 picks | 10 h 50to the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.44no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.7 | -0.44 | 44c | -100% | 43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NHLlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $323,966 | before 90%in play 10%, over 113 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 36 h 19 before the start | 2 dto the end, median over 118 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 13 of them sold before the market settled | -0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 56 of 113 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 113 | 38.1%43 W · 70 L | -9.8 | -0.09 | 47c | -20.9% | 42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| South American Leagues Inactivelast settled Sep 14, 2026, EDT | $28,831 | before 92%in play 8%, over 53 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 10 h 49 before the start | 15 h 53to the end, median over 74 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.12no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 20 of 53 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -6.1 | -0.12 | 46c | -27.9% | 41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 2
- What they are worth now
- $1,178bought for $1,155
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 43worth $0
Its 2 running positions
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Now | Worth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Counter-Strike: B8 vs K27 (BO3) - Tesla Cup Group A (opens in a new tab)backed K27 | 1,806 | 39c | 41c | $731 |
| Will 1. FC Magdeburg win on 2026-10-28? (opens in a new tab)backed No | 460 | 98c | 97c | $446 |
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 5 largest of 43. These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Italy win on 2026-10-05? (opens in a new tab)backed No · settled | 35,332 | 37c | $0 | Counted |
| Will England win on 2026-10-06? (opens in a new tab)backed No · settled | 33,170 | 13c | $0 | Counted |
| Game Handicap: Liquid (-1.5) vs Team Yandex (+1.5) (opens in a new tab)backed Team Liquid · settled | 19,739 | 31c | $0 | Counted |
| Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) - ESL Pro League Playoffs (opens in a new tab)backed Spirit · settled | 13,600 | 26c | $0 | Counted |
| Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs magic (+1.5) (opens in a new tab)backed FUT Esports · settled | 11,516 | 37c | $0 | Counted |
Do these count towards the record above? 5 do: the wallet holds a scored pick on those markets, already in the table above.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.