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Wallet 0x40cf…d21d
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x40cfb29411d29f4fa0908f2a121297042cccd21d
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$715,374 staked over 559 qualified picks in 24 categories, 8 of 24 below 50.
Best category
Us Politics
$28,085 staked over 30 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.14 per pick.
See the full Us Politics boardSecond best
Middle East
$193,888 staked over 200 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.06 per pick.
See the full Middle East boardThird best
Ligue 1
$44 staked over 2 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.06 per pick.
See the full Ligue 1 boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$23.82 tailing 1 Us Politics pick (1 W · 0 L) at $50 each: +47.6% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Us Politics picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Record by category24 Categories
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Us Politicslast settled Sep 29, 2026, EDT | $28,085 | —no start of play | 3 dresells, median over 38 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 25 of them sold before the market settled | +0.2388% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 88% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 18 of 30 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +7.8 | +0.26 | 41c | +204.8% | 66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Middle East Inactivelast settled Oct 12, 2026, EDT | $193,888 | —no start of play | 1 dresells, median over 244 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 188 of them sold before the market settled | +0.04out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 63% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 159 of 200 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 200 | 40%80 W · 120 L | +13.3 | +0.07 | 33c | +50.1% | 57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast settled May 27, 2026, EDT | $44 | —too few: 2 picks | 9 h 57resells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.7194% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5 | +0.74 | 26c | +522% | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| AIlast settled Oct 15, 2026, EDT | $5,127 | —no start of play | 2 h 57resells, median over 13 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1386% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 86% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 10 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5 | +0.15 | 35c | +29.8% | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NFL Inactivelast settled Feb 12, 2026, EST | $1,078 | —no start of play | 3 h 35resells, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.34115% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 115% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2 | +0.30 | 45c | +75.3% | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Sep 16, 2026, EDT | $11,891 | —no start of play | 1 dresells, median over 11 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1495% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9 | +0.14 | 36c | +22.7% | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Oct 4, 2026, EDT | $2,724 | —too few: 1 pick | 1 dto the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.26105% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 105% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.8 | +0.25 | 8c | +49.7% | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Weatherlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $1,430 | —too few: 2 picks | 8 h 52resells, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 7 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.6 | +0.08 | 20c | -47.9% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Tennislast settled Oct 15, 2026, EDT | $21,330 | —too few: 3 picks | 4 h 21to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1484% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 84% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5 | +0.17 | 50c | -8.6% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Earnings Inactivelast settled Jul 27, 2026, EDT | $3,854 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.07out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 16% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5 | +0.45 | 55c | +82.8% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| CS2 Inactivelast settled Mar 23, 2026, EDT | $779 | —too few: 2 picks | 3 h 17to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1997% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 97% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4 | +0.19 | 31c | -17.9% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NBA Inactivelast settled Jul 26, 2026, EDT | $2,877 | —no start of play | 1 dresells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1899% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4 | +0.18 | 32c | -5.9% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Stocks Inactivelast settled Jun 3, 2026, EDT | $80,443 | —no start of play | 1 dto the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.81319% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 319% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3 | +0.25 | 75c | +34.2% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Movies Inactivelast settled Mar 23, 2026, EDT | $169 | —no start of play | 17 h 15resells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0489% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 89% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1 | +0.05 | 29c | -18.7% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Us Midterms Inactivelast settled Aug 28, 2026, EDT | $23,240 | —no start of play | 3 dresells, median over 38 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 23 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 19 of 26 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +0.1 | 0.00 | 30c | -14.5% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| World Politicslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $208,003 | —no start of play | 7 dresells, median over 250 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 136 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 117 of 173 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 173 | 34.1%59 W · 114 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 34c | +94.4% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Dota2 Inactivelast settled May 3, 2026, EDT | $24 | —too few: 1 pick | 9 h 36to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | 0.00no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 0c | -100% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Ukrainelast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $61,684 | —no start of play | 7 dto the end, median over 26 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 15 of 22 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | 0.0 | 0.00 | 32c | +12.6% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| IPO Inactivelast settled Feb 16, 2026, EST | $534 | —no start of play | 19 h 31resells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1 | -0.04 | 4c | -100% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Commodities Inactivelast settled Oct 6, 2026, EDT | $65,279 | —no start of play | 5 dresells, median over 57 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 35 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 45 of 54 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 54 | 31.5%17 W · 37 L | -0.8 | -0.02 | 33c | +49.6% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLB Inactivelast settled Oct 10, 2026, EDT | $1,852 | —too few: 1 pick | 10 h 14to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.37no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4 | -0.37 | 37c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| China Taiwan Inactivelast settled May 25, 2026, EDT | $289 | —no start of play | 43 minresells, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.20no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4 | -0.20 | 20c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Venezuelalast settled Jul 1, 2026, EDT | $226 | —no start of play | 5 h 54resells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.35no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6 | -0.31 | 31c | -100% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Lol Inactivelast settled Oct 12, 2026, EDT | $524 | —too few: 2 picks | 2 h 57to the end, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.38no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8 | -0.41 | 41c | -100% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 70
- What they are worth now
- $224,520bought for $179,629
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 0worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 70, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.