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Wallet 0xa2b5…4582
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0xa2b5bafa01d0f81926a2a88e5628a95b59fc4582
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$9,185,156 staked over 716 qualified picks in 28 categories, 15 of 28 below 50.
Best category
Champions League
$922,176 staked over 50 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.14 per pick.
See the full Champions League boardSecond best
Europa Conference League
$253,554 staked over 29 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.07 per pick.
See the full Europa Conference League boardThird best
Bundesliga
$415,002 staked over 30 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.06 per pick.
See the full Bundesliga boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$104.87 tailing 12 Champions League picks (7 W · 5 L) at $50 each: +17.5% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Champions League picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Record by category28 Categories
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Champions Leaguelast settled Oct 14, 2026, EDT | $922,176 | before 40%in play 60%, over 47 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 min after the start | 3 h 52to the end, median over 50 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 16 of them sold before the market settled | +0.2199% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 42 of 50 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 50 | 68%34 W · 16 L | +10.6 | +0.21 | 47c | +57.9% | 66 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Europa Conference Leaguelast settled Oct 15, 2026, EDT | $253,554 | before 48%in play 52%, over 29 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 0 min after the start | 4 h 16to the end, median over 29 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1399% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 28 of 29 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +3.8 | +0.13 | 42c | +34.7% | 58 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Bundesligalast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $415,002 | before 31%in play 69%, over 29 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 12 min after the start | 3 h 13to the end, median over 30 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | +0.12106% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 106% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 30 of 30 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +3.5 | +0.12 | 55c | +17.5% | 57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other European Leagues Inactivelast settled Jul 22, 2026, EDT | $56,037 | before 20%in play 80%, over 15 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 41 min after the start | 4 h 00to the end, median over 16 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.16104% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 104% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 15 of 15 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2 | +0.15 | 45c | +11.2% | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ligue 1 Inactivelast settled Sep 11, 2026, EDT | $181,169 | before 22%in play 78%, over 23 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 18 min after the start | 3 h 06to the end, median over 23 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | +0.12108% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 108% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 22 of 23 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +2.6 | +0.11 | 50c | +20.9% | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $820,010 | before 34%in play 66%, over 89 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 7 min after the start | 3 h 24to the end, median over 93 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 32 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06102% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 102% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 86 of 93 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 93 | 51.6%48 W · 45 L | +5.6 | +0.06 | 46c | +9.6% | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| MLBlast settled Oct 15, 2026, EDT | $717,007 | before 10%in play 90%, over 105 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 51 min after the start | 2 h 08to the end, median over 105 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 25 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 41% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 104 of 105 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | +3.9 | +0.04 | 48c | +4.3% | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Asian League Inactivelast settled Aug 21, 2026, EDT | $15,444 | —too few: 5 picks | 3 h 46to the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1295% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.6 | +0.13 | 47c | +12% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| College Football Inactivelast settled Sep 12, 2026, EDT | $5,479 | —too few: 1 pick | 36 minto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | +0.55103% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 103% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5 | +0.53 | 47c | +113.5% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Tennis Inactivelast settled Sep 24, 2026, EDT | $13,231 | —too few: 4 picks | 36 minresells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | +0.05out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 55% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 4 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4 | +0.10 | 40c | +35.7% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Australian A Leaguelast settled May 23, 2026, EDT | $6,028 | —too few: 2 picks | 6 h 06to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.16112% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 112% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3 | +0.14 | 36c | +61.3% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| La Ligalast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $280,020 | before 37%in play 63%, over 40 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 7 min after the start | 2 h 04to the end, median over 40 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 15 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02440% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 440% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 38 of 40 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +0.2 | 0.00 | 45c | -4.2% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Movies Inactivelast settled Mar 16, 2026, EDT | $14,676 | —no start of play | 19 h 37to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.05234% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 234% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1 | +0.02 | 31c | -45.4% | 50 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| South American Leagues Inactivelast settled Sep 9, 2026, EDT | $46,141 | before 8%in play 92%, over 12 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 36 min after the start | 3 h 43to the end, median over 13 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 12 of 12 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2 | -0.02 | 43c | -17.1% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Parlays Inactivelast settled Oct 11, 2026, EDT | $2,083 | —no start of play | —no market to hold | —no market price | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2 | -0.08 | 8c | -100% | 49 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Us Politics Inactivelast settled Nov 13, 2025, EST | $113 | —no start of play | 4 dto the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.26no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5 | -0.26 | 26c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Music Inactivelast settled May 16, 2026, EDT | $13,628 | —no start of play | 6 h 19to the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.50no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5 | -0.50 | 50c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Lol Inactivelast settled May 28, 2026, EDT | $346 | —too few: 1 pick | 5 h 13to the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.46no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5 | -0.53 | 53c | -100% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NHLlast settled Oct 22, 2026, EDT | $31,999 | —too few: 7 picks | 2 h 46to the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.10no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7 | -0.10 | 52c | -16.9% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Dota2 Inactivelast settled May 28, 2026, EDT | $2,883 | —too few: 1 pick | 2 h 11to the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled | -0.59no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6 | -0.60 | 60c | -100% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Mls Inactivelast settled Sep 13, 2026, EDT | $88,718 | before 29%in play 71%, over 21 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 13 min after the start | 2 h 18to the end, median over 21 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 20 of 21 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -1.2 | -0.06 | 39c | -20.4% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NBAlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT | $3,105,462 | before 46%in play 54%, over 132 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 5 min after the start | 3 h 31to the end, median over 150 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 56 of them sold before the market settled | -0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 133 of 141 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 141 | 43.3%61 W · 80 L | -4.8 | -0.03 | 47c | -18.2% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CS2 Inactivelast settled Jun 15, 2026, EDT | $49,849 | —too few: 5 picks | 2 h 29to the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.13no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9 | -0.18 | 58c | -39.5% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast settled Apr 5, 2026, EDT | $26,610 | —too few: 3 picks | 12 h 50resells, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.21no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9 | -0.22 | 47c | -66.5% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Serie Alast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $505,127 | before 26%in play 74%, over 39 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 17 min after the start | 1 h 44to the end, median over 39 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 15 of them sold before the market settled | -0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 35 of 39 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -2.0 | -0.05 | 44c | +4% | 46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| WNBA Inactivelast settled Sep 21, 2026, EDT | $16,485 | —too few: 2 picks | 1 h 40to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.46no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9 | -0.45 | 45c | -100% | 46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Sep 26, 2026, EDT | $1,424,900 | before 26%in play 74%, over 66 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 18 min after the start | 1 h 46resells, median over 68 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 35 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 67 of 68 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 68 | 36.8%25 W · 43 L | -3.3 | -0.05 | 42c | -11.2% | 46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| NFLlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT | $170,979 | —too few: 8 picks | 9 h 07to the end, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.16no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5 | -0.15 | 45c | -37% | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
This wallet is holding nothing on Polymarket. We asked and the answer was empty: no running positions, and nothing settled waiting to be cashed. This is a result we measured, not missing data.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.