You’d be +$386.82 tailing 10 Fifa International picks (8 W · 2 L) at $50 each: +77.4% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Fifa International picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Record by category40 Categories
What these columns mean
Category
The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
Staked
The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
When it bets
Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
Holds
How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
At your price
What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
Qualified picks
Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
Win rate
How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
vs expected
Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
Realizable edge
Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
Avg entry
The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
ROI per pick
The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
Tail Score
The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
Category
Staked
When it bets
Holds
At your price
Qualified picks
Win rate
vs expected
Realizable edge
Avg entry
ROI per pick
Tail Score
050100
Fifa Internationallast settled Oct 26, 2026, EDT
$229
—too few: 6 picks
4 h 05to the end, median over 40 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 17 of them sold before the market settled
+0.2799% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 9 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
2 dresells, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled
+0.3195% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 22%in play 78%, over 51 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 48 min after the start
2 h 10resells, median over 80 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 57 of them sold before the market settled
+0.0582% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 82% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 43 of 53 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
5 h 09resells, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled
+0.1986% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 86% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 4 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
4 dto the end, median over 18 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled
+0.18100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
5 dresells, median over 8 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled
+0.20100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 62%in play 38%, over 13 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 36 before the start
5 h 47to the end, median over 25 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled
+0.09103% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 103% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 12 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 65%in play 35%, over 49 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 49 before the start
5 h 03resells, median over 84 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 43 of them sold before the market settled
+0.04100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 30 of 53 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
11 dresells, median over 8 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled
+0.3799% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
5 h 01resells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled
+0.54101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
1 h 05resells, median over 6 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled
+0.16111% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 111% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
US Open WTA: Aryna Sabalenka vs Linda Noskova AND US Open ATP: Ben Shelton vs Carlos Alcaraz AND US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Botic van de Zandschulp3 legs · legs not recovered from the chain
US Open ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Francisco Cerundolo AND US Open ATP: Alexander Zverev vs Alejandro Tabilo AND Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-09-05?3 legs · legs not recovered from the chain
Will AC Milan win on 2026-08-28? AND Will Lille OSC win on 2026-08-28? AND Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-08-28?3 legs · legs not recovered from the chain
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-24?3 legs · legs not recovered from the chain
All 5 parlays, newest first.A parlay pays a dollar a share only if every leg wins, and its Entry is the price of the whole ticket, market maker’s margin included. That is why most of the Parlays board sits below 50, and why that is normal, not a board full of bad forecasters.
Token LaunchesInactivelast settled Nov 29, 2025, EST
$324
—no start of play
2 dresells, median over 18 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 13 of them sold before the market settled
+0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 37% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 2 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Europa Conference LeagueInactivelast settled Feb 26, 2026, EST
$14
—too few: 1 pick
2 h 16resells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
+0.33103% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 103% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
3 h 44resells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
+0.31100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
22 minresells, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled
+0.2688% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 88% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Ncaa BasketballInactivelast settled Mar 20, 2026, EDT
$58
—too few: 1 pick
41 minresells, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled
+0.2380% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 80% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
2 dresells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
+0.28100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
South American LeaguesInactivelast settled Feb 26, 2026, EST
$15
—too few: 1 pick
6 h 38to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled
+0.25100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
5 h 54to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.25100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
7 h 41to the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.25100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
4 dto the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.11100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
6 dresells, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled
+0.03106% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 106% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 3 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 90%in play 10%, over 31 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 h 59 before the start
11 h 38to the end, median over 43 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled
0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 24 of 36 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
2 dresells, median over 6 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled
+0.0388% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 88% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
3 dresells, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled
+0.0297% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 97% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
5 dresells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled
+0.01100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
2 h 47resells, median over 10 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled
-0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 7 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
21 h 02resells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled
+0.01274% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 274% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Premier LeagueInactivelast settled Sep 17, 2026, EDT
$197
—too few: 8 picks
3 h 37to the end, median over 13 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled
-0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 7 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
1 h 23resells, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled
-0.15no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
1 dto the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
-0.38no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 31%in play 69%, over 13 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 59 min after the start
1 h 53resells, median over 22 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled
-0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 11 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 19%in play 81%, over 21 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 12 after the start
2 h 44to the end, median over 35 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 17 of them sold before the market settled
-0.15no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 20 of 21 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
2 dto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
-0.49no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
6 h 12resells, median over 12 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled
-0.13no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
17 h 06resells, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled
-0.74no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
8 dresells, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled
-0.75no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 89%in play 11%, over 18 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 h 14 before the start
9 h 21to the end, median over 35 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled
-0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 17 of 19 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
13 h 37resells, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled
-0.50no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
Paid
Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
Now
What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
Worth
What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
The 1 largest of 1. These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
Position
How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
Paid
Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
Worth
What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
Do these count towards the record above?1 never will. TailMyPicks scored that market, and this wallet’s position on it did not clear the bar: too small, bought above the price cap, or hedged away.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
The position was at least $10.
The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.