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Wallet 0x8031…c84c
https://tailmypicks.com/w/0x80316a4e38c8826f7e84c90083edd98cf2d9c84c
Rebuilt .
Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end
$8,205 staked over 577 qualified picks in 44 categories, 21 of 44 below 50.
Best category
Premier League
$176 staked over 13 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.10 per pick.
See the full Premier League boardSecond best
Asian League
$93 staked over 7 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.09 per pick.
See the full Asian League boardThird best
College Football
$97 staked over 7 qualified picks
Above the line at +0.08 per pick.
See the full College Football boardIf you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast
You’d be +$63.08 tailing 3 Premier League picks (3 W · 0 L) at $50 each: +42.1% per pick.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Premier League picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Record by category44 Categories
What these columns mean
- Category
- The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
- Staked
- The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
- When it bets
- Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
- Holds
- How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
- At your price
- What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
- Qualified picks
- Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
- Win rate
- How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
- vs expected
- Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
- Realizable edge
- Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
- Avg entry
- The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
- ROI per pick
- The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
- Tail Score
- The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
| Category | Staked | When it bets | Holds | At your price | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Premier Leaguelast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $176 | before 62%in play 38%, over 13 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 01 before the start | 4 h 15to the end, median over 146 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 35 of them sold before the market settled | +0.2998% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 11 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.8 | +0.29 | 63c | +49.7% | 61 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Asian League Inactivelast settled May 21, 2026, EDT | $93 | —too few: 7 picks | 3 h 58to the end, median over 131 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | +0.41102% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 102% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 6 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.8 | +0.40 | 60c | +74.4% | 60 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| College Football Inactivelast settled Sep 27, 2026, EDT | $97 | —too few: 7 picks | 2 h 20to the end, median over 97 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | +0.3699% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.5 | +0.36 | 50c | +74.4% | 59 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| MLB Inactivelast settled Sep 27, 2026, EDT | $315 | before 30%in play 70%, over 23 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 20 min after the start | 3 h 13to the end, median over 372 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 49 of them sold before the market settled | +0.16108% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 108% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 18 of 24 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 24 | 75%18 W · 6 L | +3.5 | +0.15 | 60c | +29.9% | 58 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Lol Inactivelast settled Sep 28, 2026, EDT | $490 | before 38%in play 62%, over 37 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 21 min after the start | 4 h 05to the end, median over 807 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 106 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1298% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 31 of 37 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.5 | +0.12 | 61c | +21.1% | 58 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Other European Leagueslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $199 | before 67%in play 33%, over 15 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 8 min before the start | 4 h 35to the end, median over 159 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1799% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 99% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 11 of 15 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +2.6 | +0.17 | 63c | +28.7% | 57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Cricket Inactivelast settled Jul 25, 2026, EDT | $136 | before 82%in play 18%, over 11 Cricket picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 52 before the start | 7 h 17to the end, median over 135 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 21 of them sold before the market settled | +0.21106% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 106% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 11 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1 | +0.19 | 53c | +25.1% | 57 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Mls Inactivelast settled Aug 15, 2026, EDT | $117 | —too few: 9 picks | 3 h 04to the end, median over 163 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | +0.21101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 7 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.9 | +0.21 | 57c | +36.9% | 56 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Europa Conference League Inactivelast settled Jul 23, 2026, EDT | $209 | before 59%in play 41%, over 17 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 4 min before the start | 4 h 27to the end, median over 133 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled | +0.12109% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 109% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 12 of 17 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.8 | +0.11 | 60c | +18% | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| South American Leagueslast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $313 | before 30%in play 70%, over 23 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 30 min after the start | 4 h 02to the end, median over 312 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | +0.09101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 21 of 23 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.1 | +0.09 | 61c | +11.3% | 55 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast settled Apr 7, 2026, EDT | $205 | before 75%in play 25%, over 12 Ncaa Basketball picks with a start of play; typically bought 9 h 33 before the start | 7 h 01to the end, median over 110 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 30 of them sold before the market settled | +0.1092% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 92% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 11 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 71.4%10 W · 4 L | +1.5 | +0.11 | 61c | +20.2% | 54 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| CS2last settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $774 | before 24%in play 76%, over 62 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 25 min after the start | 2 h 50to the end, median over 792 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 106 of them sold before the market settled | +0.0496% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 96% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 55 of 62 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | +2.5 | +0.04 | 57c | +11.8% | 53 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Macro Indicators Inactivelast settled May 12, 2026, EDT | $31 | —no start of play | 10 dto the end, median over 15 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | +0.39130% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 130% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6 | +0.30 | 70c | +42.5% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| China Taiwan Inactivelast settled May 15, 2026, EDT | $24 | —no start of play | 1 dresells, median over 11 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | +0.28101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5 | +0.27 | 73c | +37.4% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Dota2last settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT | $656 | before 8%in play 92%, over 52 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 20 after the start | 2 h 45to the end, median over 502 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 44 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03117% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 117% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 49 of 52 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | +1.5 | +0.03 | 59c | +2.5% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Jul 29, 2026, EDT | $31 | —no start of play | 10 dto the end, median over 8 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | +0.26101% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 101% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5 | +0.25 | 75c | +33.5% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Fifa International Inactivelast settled Sep 28, 2026, EDT | $225 | before 77%in play 23%, over 13 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 12 min before the start | 2 h 45to the end, median over 388 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 85 of them sold before the market settled | +0.02out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 45% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 11 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.6 | +0.05 | 57c | +11.7% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Token Launches Inactivelast settled Mar 31, 2026, EDT | $61 | —no start of play | 2 dresells, median over 22 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 16 of them sold before the market settled | +0.25117% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 117% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4 | +0.21 | 79c | +26.8% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Ligue 1 Inactivelast settled Sep 19, 2026, EDT | $148 | before 50%in play 50%, over 10 Ligue 1 picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 min before the start | 4 h 18to the end, median over 37 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled | +0.06114% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 114% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 9 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.5 | +0.05 | 55c | +6.9% | 52 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Australian A League Inactivelast settled Mar 22, 2026, EDT | $11 | —too few: 1 pick | 6 h 58to the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.27103% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 103% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3 | +0.26 | 74c | +35.1% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Us Midterms Inactivelast settled Apr 21, 2026, EDT | $58 | —no start of play | 19 h 51to the end, median over 16 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | +0.22100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2 | +0.22 | 78c | +27.4% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Boxing Inactivelast settled May 24, 2026, EDT | $14 | —no start of play | 11 h 02to the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | +0.20100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2 | +0.20 | 80c | +25% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NFL Inactivelast settled Sep 29, 2026, EDT | $548 | before 38%in play 62%, over 34 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 06 after the start | 3 h 38to the end, median over 98 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | +0.03227% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 227% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 24 of 34 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +0.4 | +0.01 | 55c | +4.4% | 51 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| WNBAlast settled Oct 19, 2026, EDT | $125 | before 50%in play 50%, over 10 WNBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 h 20 before the start | 2 h 02to the end, median over 80 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 9 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.7 | -0.07 | 57c | -16.9% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Us Politics Inactivelast settled May 13, 2026, EDT | $27 | —no start of play | 11 dresells, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled | -0.27no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.6 | -0.28 | 78c | -35.9% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Music Inactivelast settled Sep 28, 2026, EDT | $77 | —no start of play | 1 dresells, median over 19 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.17no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.6 | -0.13 | 73c | -17.2% | 48 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Champions League Inactivelast settled May 30, 2026, EDT | $68 | —too few: 4 picks | 3 h 02to the end, median over 109 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled | -0.18no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7 | -0.17 | 67c | -36.3% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| World Politics Inactivelast settled Sep 27, 2026, EDT | $180 | —no start of play | 2 dto the end, median over 78 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 32 of them sold before the market settled | -0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.8 | -0.08 | 68c | -16.6% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Golf Inactivelast settled Apr 12, 2026, EDT | $11 | —no start of play | 13 h 35to the end, median over 4 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled | -0.83no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6 | -0.61 | 61c | -100% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Serie A Inactivelast settled Sep 19, 2026, EDT | $100 | —too few: 7 picks | 3 h 38to the end, median over 53 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled | -0.11no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 7 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8 | -0.12 | 55c | -22.4% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Bundesligalast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT | $91 | —too few: 7 picks | 3 h 42to the end, median over 56 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled | -0.14no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 5 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0 | -0.14 | 57c | -29.2% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Commodities Inactivelast settled Aug 4, 2026, EDT | $68 | —no start of play | 3 dto the end, median over 87 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 38 of them sold before the market settled | -0.18no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9 | -0.18 | 58c | -41% | 47 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Movies Inactivelast settled May 26, 2026, EDT | $74 | —no start of play | 3 dto the end, median over 26 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 10 of them sold before the market settled | -0.24no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2 | -0.24 | 64c | -41.9% | 46 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Euroleague Inactivelast settled May 8, 2026, EDT | $22 | —too few: 2 picks | 5 h 46to the end, median over 25 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled | -0.58no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2 | -0.58 | 58c | -100% | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NHL Inactivelast settled May 15, 2026, EDT | $153 | before 77%in play 23%, over 13 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 09 before the start | 5 h 53to the end, median over 285 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 55 of them sold before the market settled | -0.13no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 9 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.8 | -0.14 | 52c | -30.3% | 45 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| F1 Inactivelast settled May 24, 2026, EDT | $25 | —too few: 2 picks | 6 h 34to the end, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled | -0.68no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4 | -0.68 | 68c | -100% | 44 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Weather Inactivelast settled Sep 30, 2026, EDT | $74 | —too few: 6 picks | 22 h 35to the end, median over 761 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 62 of them sold before the market settled | -0.27no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.7 | -0.28 | 62c | -53.2% | 44 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Tweets Inactivelast settled May 5, 2026, EDT | $67 | —no start of play | 1 dto the end, median over 54 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 19 of them sold before the market settled | -0.36no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 3 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.8 | -0.36 | 56c | -73.7% | 43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| NBAlast settled Oct 16, 2026, EDT | $428 | before 83%in play 17%, over 30 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 2 h 15 before the start | 5 h 03to the end, median over 565 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 88 of them sold before the market settled | -0.12no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 25 of 31 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -3.4 | -0.11 | 56c | -24.1% | 43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| La Liga Inactivelast settled Sep 19, 2026, EDT | $194 | before 47%in play 53%, over 15 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 28 min after the start | 3 h 51to the end, median over 110 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled | -0.16no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 13 of 15 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -2.4 | -0.16 | 56c | -32.2% | 43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Middle East Inactivelast settled Aug 3, 2026, EDT | $478 | —no start of play | 4 dresells, median over 99 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 65 of them sold before the market settled | -0.17no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 9 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.6 | -0.18 | 61c | -38.8% | 43 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Valorant Inactivelast settled Aug 15, 2026, EDT | $51 | —too few: 4 picks | 2 h 46to the end, median over 148 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled | -0.49no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.0 | -0.51 | 51c | -100% | 42 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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| Tennis Inactivelast settled Sep 30, 2026, EDT | $874 | before 19%in play 81%, over 64 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 54 min after the start | 2 h 49to the end, median over 979 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 140 of them sold before the market settled | -0.11no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 53 of 64 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | -7.2 | -0.11 | 57c | -13.9% | 41 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| UFC Inactivelast settled Aug 15, 2026, EDT | $84 | —too few: 6 picks | 2 h 54to the end, median over 71 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 12 of them sold before the market settled | -0.51no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price) | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -3.1 | -0.51 | 68c | -78.6% | 39 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
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What this wallet holds right now
Last asked .
- Positions on running markets
- 132
- What they are worth now
- $577bought for $606
- Settled, not yet cashed
- 3worth $0
Its 10 largest running positions
Of 132, by what they are worth today. The count and the value in the tiles above cover all of them.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Now
- What the same outcome costs on Polymarket as of the last price check. Nothing on this table is a result: these markets have not settled and there is nothing yet to be right about.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
Settled bets it has not cashed in
The 3 largest of 3. These markets have already settled: the money is there and the wallet has not collected it. They are not open bets, so they are not in the figures above.
What these columns mean
- Position
- How many shares of this outcome the wallet still holds, as Polymarket reports them right now. It is a number of shares, not an amount of money. What they are worth is in the Worth column.
- Paid
- Polymarket's own average price for the shares the wallet still holds. It is not the entry price TailMyPicks works out for a scored pick, which averages the buys on the side it picked, weighted by the size of each buy. The two answer different questions.
- Worth
- What those shares would sell for at the last price Polymarket published for this outcome. If Polymarket has said nothing about a position, it shows as not priced, not as zero, because nobody quoted a price for it.
| Market | Position | Paid | Worth | In the record? |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Market 0xa1a5…30babacked outcome 0 | 7.85 | 74c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Market 0x0f48…ff9ebacked outcome 0 | 5 | 65c | $0 | Not read yet |
| Market 0xbb4b…d54cbacked outcome 0 | 5 | 66c | $0 | Not read yet |
Do these count towards the record above? 3 are not in the published record at all: TailMyPicks has published nothing about those markets, so they are neither counted nor ruled out. Either we have not read it yet, or nothing anyone held on it was ever scored.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
- The position was at least $10.
- The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.