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Wallet 0x755d…6acc

Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Rebuilt .

Wallet profilescored on settled markets · held to the end

$49,681 staked over 426 qualified picks in 29 categories, 19 of 29 below 50.

57

Best category

IPO

$1,198 staked over 8 qualified picks

Above the line at +0.07 per pick.

See the full IPO board
52

Second best

NBA

$67 staked over 1 qualified picks

Above the line at +0.02 per pick.

See the full NBA board
51

Third best

NFL

$5,342 staked over 24 qualified picks

Above the line at +0.01 per pick.

See the full NFL board

If you had taileda hypothetical, not a forecast

You’d be +$267.39 tailing 8 IPO picks (6 W · 2 L) at $50 each: +66.8% per pick.

A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified IPO picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.

Record by category29 Categories

What these columns mean
Category
The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
Staked
The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
When it bets
Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
Holds
How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
At your price
What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
Qualified picks
Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
Win rate
How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
vs expected
Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
Realizable edge
Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
Avg entry
The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
ROI per pick
The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
Tail Score
The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
CategoryStakedWhen it betsHoldsAt your priceQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
IPOlast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT$1,198—no start of play5 dresells, median over 11 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled+0.2591% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 91% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 4 of 8 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)875%6 W · 2 L+2.2+0.2748c+66.8%57
NBA Inactivelast settled May 31, 2026, EDT$67—no start of play13 dresells, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled+0.4892% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 92% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5+0.5248c+109%52
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
May 31, 2026, EDTWill the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)48c$67+109%+$73
All 1 picks, newest first.
NFLlast settled Oct 18, 2026, EDT$5,342—no start of play1 dto the end, median over 51 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 25 of them sold before the market settled+0.0294% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 94% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 8 of 24 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)2425%6 W · 18 L+0.6+0.0223c-21.7%51
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Oct 18, 2026, EDTWill the Tennessee Titans be the last winless team of the 2026-27 NFL regular season?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)64c$45+57%+$25.37
Sep 28, 2026, EDTWill the announcers say "One Handed" during the Rams vs Broncos game?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)77c$15+29.9%+$4.6
Feb 10, 2026, ESTWill the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)26c$56-100%-$56.33
Feb 9, 2026, ESTWill Jason Myers win the Super Bowl LX MVP?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)11c$22-100%-$22.19
Feb 9, 2026, ESTWill the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)6c$703-100%-$702.54
Feb 9, 2026, ESTWill the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)9c$803+988%+$7,933.88
Feb 6, 2026, ESTWill Matthew Stafford win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)51c$399+97.1%+$387.28
Feb 6, 2026, ESTWill Drake Maye win the 2025–26 NFL MVP award?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)23c$307-100%-$307.29
Jan 26, 2026, ESTWill the Seahawks win the 2026 NFC Championship?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)41c$66-100%-$65.74
Jan 26, 2026, ESTWill the Rams win the NFC Championship?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)71c$92+40.8%+$37.7
Jan 26, 2026, ESTWill the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)12c$829-100%-$828.9
Jan 25, 2026, ESTWill the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)6c$495-100%-$494.92
Jan 19, 2026, ESTWill the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)3c$30-100%-$29.86
Jan 18, 2026, ESTWill the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)10c$354-100%-$354.5
Jan 17, 2026, ESTWill the Buffalo Bills win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)11c$155-100%-$154.84
Jan 12, 2026, ESTWill the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)3c$33-100%-$33.06
Jan 12, 2026, ESTWill the Philadelphia Eagles win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)11c$128-100%-$128
Jan 11, 2026, ESTWill the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)8c$41-100%-$40.85
Jan 10, 2026, ESTWill the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)3c$22-100%-$22.1
Jan 5, 2026, ESTWill Myles Garrett break the NFL sack record?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)60c$60+66.7%+$40
Jan 5, 2026, ESTWill the Baltimore Ravens win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$50-100%-$50.39
Dec 27, 2025, ESTWill the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)6c$287-100%-$286.79
Dec 25, 2025, ESTWill the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)10c$213-100%-$212.74
Dec 14, 2025, ESTWill the Kansas City Chiefs win Super Bowl 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)13c$137-100%-$137.2
All 24 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast settled May 30, 2026, EDT$70—no start of play4 dresells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled+0.3098% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 98% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3+0.3070c+42.9%51
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
May 30, 2026, EDTWill the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)70c$70+42.9%+$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast settled Aug 3, 2026, EDT$10,146—no start of play4 dresells, median over 134 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 94 of them sold before the market settled+0.01out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 70% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 18 of 63 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)6331.7%20 W · 43 L+0.8+0.0131c-18.6%51
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Aug 3, 2026, EDTWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Day Box Office be at least 152m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)68c$68+47.1%+$32
Aug 3, 2026, EDTWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" score at least 90 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)51c$51+96.1%+$49
Aug 1, 2026, EDTWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)8c$17-100%-$16.65
Aug 1, 2026, EDTWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)3c$23-100%-$23.16
Aug 1, 2026, EDTWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)5c$74-100%-$74.34
Aug 1, 2026, EDTWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 20 and 30 years in prison?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$20-100%-$19.7
Jul 27, 2026, EDTWill anyone say "Camera" during Big Brother E10?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)52c$10-100%-$10.4
Jul 21, 2026, EDTWill Avengers: Doomsday Trailer get between 35 and 40 million views on Day 1?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)52c$21-100%-$20.98
Jul 3, 2026, EDTWill "Obsession" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)35c$161-100%-$160.75
Jul 2, 2026, EDTWill "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)34c$698-100%-$698.48
Jul 1, 2026, EDTNo one announced as next James Bond?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)34c$53-100%-$53.36
Jul 1, 2026, EDTZendaya confirmed pregnant by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$21-100%-$21
Jun 29, 2026, EDTWill "Toy Story 5" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 77m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)13c$26-100%-$26
Jun 22, 2026, EDTWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 184m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)9c$27-100%-$26.7
Jun 22, 2026, EDTWill "Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 171m and 184m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)48c$40-100%-$40.41
Jun 18, 2026, EDTWill Zendaya and Tom Holland get married by December 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)66c$217+52.4%+$113.44
Jun 15, 2026, EDTWill "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)80c$16+25%+$4
Jun 8, 2026, EDTWill "Masters of the Universe" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 27m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$13-100%-$13.23
May 5, 2026, EDTWill Lady Gaga attend the Met Gala?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)35c$44-100%-$44.37
Apr 27, 2026, EDTWill "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 80m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)66c$20+51.5%+$10.2
Apr 13, 2026, EDTWill "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$10-100%-$10.5
Apr 6, 2026, EDTWill "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 200m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)76c$153+30.7%+$47
Apr 6, 2026, EDTWill "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 190m and 200m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)14c$28+601.8%+$171.48
Apr 6, 2026, EDTWill "The Drama" score at least 77 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)67c$20+49.2%+$9.89
Mar 30, 2026, EDTWill "Hoppers" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 11m and 12m?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)65c$33-100%-$32.5
Showing 25 of 63 picks, newest first.
China Taiwanlast settled Sep 27, 2026, EDT$368—no start of play3 dresells, median over 20 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 17 of them sold before the market settled0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 16% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 4 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)1040%4 W · 6 L+0.2+0.0238c+26.1%51
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Sep 27, 2026, EDTUS x China tariff agreement by December 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)14c$23-100%-$22.59
Jul 31, 2026, EDTWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)17c$80-100%-$80.19
Jul 31, 2026, EDTWill Moonshot have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)57c$28+75.7%+$21.54
Jul 20, 2026, EDTChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)14c$14+614.3%+$86
May 13, 2026, EDTWill Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)55c$55+81.8%+$45
Apr 30, 2026, EDTWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)54c$20-100%-$20.04
Apr 24, 2026, EDTDeepSeek V4 released by April 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)19c$19-100%-$19
Apr 10, 2026, EDTWill Xi Jinping meet with Cheng Li-wun by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)53c$32+89.4%+$28.32
Mar 16, 2026, EDTDeepSeek V4 released by March 15?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)56c$11-100%-$11.2
Mar 1, 2026, ESTDeepSeek V4 released by February 28?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)36c$86-100%-$85.65
All 10 picks, newest first.
WNBAlast settled Oct 8, 2026, EDT$158—no start of play15 dresells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled+0.10111% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 111% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)250%1 W · 1 L+0.2+0.0941c-10.7%51
Fed Rates Inactivelast settled Jul 29, 2026, EDT$1,762—no start of play6 dresells, median over 25 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled0.00out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept nothing of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 6 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)1428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.2+0.0227c-34.8%51
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Jul 29, 2026, EDTWill Warsh say "Balance Sheet" during July Press Conference?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)15c$15-100%-$15
Jul 29, 2026, EDTWill Warsh say "Task Force" 20+ times during July Press Conference?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)23c$12-100%-$11.5
Jul 29, 2026, EDTWill Warsh say "Productivity" during July Press Conference?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)16c$16-100%-$16
Jul 29, 2026, EDTWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)19c$19-100%-$18.7
May 15, 2026, EDTJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)12c$59-100%-$59.3
Mar 4, 2026, ESTWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)50c$216-100%-$215.7
Mar 4, 2026, ESTWill Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)53c$147+89.8%+$131.71
Jan 28, 2026, ESTFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)10c$20-100%-$20
Jan 1, 2026, ESTWill Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)43c$172+130.7%+$224.68
Dec 10, 2025, ESTWill 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)13c$249-100%-$249.4
Dec 10, 2025, ESTNo change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)33c$130-100%-$130
Dec 10, 2025, ESTWill 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)56c$554+77%+$426.74
Dec 10, 2025, ESTFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)32c$143+215.8%+$307.5
Oct 29, 2025, EDTNo change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)2c$11-100%-$11
All 14 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast settled Jul 6, 2026, EDT$303—no start of play23 h 27to the end, median over 12 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled+0.02210% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 210% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 2 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.1+0.0128c-21.7%50
Fifa International Inactivelast settled Jul 19, 2026, EDT$2,005—no start of play6 dresells, median over 32 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 19 of them sold before the market settled0.00126% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 126% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 13 of 19 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)1921.1%4 W · 15 L+0.10.0021c-43.8%50
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Jul 19, 2026, EDTWill Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)29c$204-100%-$203.99
Jul 19, 2026, EDTWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)17c$100+502.4%+$500.4
Jul 19, 2026, EDTWill Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)17c$42-100%-$41.67
Jul 19, 2026, EDTPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)8c$77-100%-$76.56
Jul 19, 2026, EDTWill Trump attend 1 World Cup match?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)33c$66-100%-$65.5
Jul 19, 2026, EDTWill Coldplay perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)23c$23-100%-$23
Jul 14, 2026, EDTWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)33c$65-100%-$65.2
Jul 11, 2026, EDTWill Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)5c$99-100%-$98.7
Jul 11, 2026, EDTWill Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)12c$49-100%-$48.8
Jul 9, 2026, EDTWill Africa (CAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)4c$195-100%-$195
Jul 9, 2026, EDTWill Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)2c$102-100%-$102
Jul 9, 2026, EDTWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)64c$128+56.3%+$72
Jul 7, 2026, EDTWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)1c$55-100%-$55
Jul 5, 2026, EDTWill Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)12c$85-100%-$84.76
Jun 29, 2026, EDTWill Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)2c$126-100%-$126.42
Jun 27, 2026, EDTWill Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)1c$100-100%-$100
Jun 24, 2026, EDTWill Neymar play in the World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)57c$221+76.1%+$168.06
Jun 21, 2026, EDTWill Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)75c$150+33.3%+$50
Jun 20, 2026, EDTWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)1c$120-100%-$120
All 19 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast settled May 5, 2026, EDT$18—no start of play12 h 20resells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled-0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)10%0 W · 1 L0.0-0.055c-100%50
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
May 5, 2026, EDTWill Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)5c$18-100%-$18.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast settled May 10, 2026, EDT$20—no start of play1 dresells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled-0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)10%0 W · 1 L-0.1-0.066c-100%50
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
May 10, 2026, EDTWill Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)6c$20-100%-$20.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast settled Dec 20, 2025, EST$24—no start of play9 h 49resells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled-0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)10%0 W · 1 L-0.1-0.088c-100%50
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Dec 20, 2025, ESTWill Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)8c$24-100%-$24
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympicslast settled Feb 22, 2026, EST$88—no start of play1 dresells, median over 6 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled-0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)30%0 W · 3 L-0.1-0.044c-100%49
Ukraine Inactivelast settled Oct 1, 2026, EDT$360—no start of play5 dresells, median over 25 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 20 of them sold before the market settled-0.03no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 9 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.3-0.0325c-51.1%49
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Oct 1, 2026, EDTTrump meets with Putin by September 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)10c$19-100%-$19
Sep 21, 2026, EDTWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)45c$45-100%-$45
Sep 1, 2026, EDTRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)13c$90-100%-$90.1
Aug 19, 2026, EDTWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by August 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)70c$35+42.9%+$15
Aug 1, 2026, EDTWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by July 31, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$15-100%-$15.34
Jun 26, 2026, EDTRussia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)28c$14-100%-$14
May 9, 2026, EDTRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)34c$84+197.6%+$165.99
Apr 1, 2026, EDTRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)10c$47-100%-$46.72
Apr 1, 2026, EDTWill Zelenskyy talk to Putin by March 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)11c$11-100%-$11
All 9 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast settled May 1, 2026, EDT$122—no start of play2 dresells, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled-0.11no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)20%0 W · 2 L-0.2-0.1112c-100%49
Premier League Inactivelast settled Aug 17, 2026, EDT$3,663—no start of play12 dresells, median over 9 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 8 of them sold before the market settled-0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.3-0.0539c-45.7%49
Venezuela Inactivelast settled Jan 3, 2026, EST$425—no start of play16 dto the end, median over 8 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled-0.07no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 7 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5-0.0736c-26.3%48
Macro Indicators Inactivelast settled Jul 16, 2026, EDT$231—no start of play21 dto the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled-0.09no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 3 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6-0.1952c-51.7%48
AIlast settled Oct 23, 2026, EDT$6,154—no start of play6 dresells, median over 90 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 56 of them sold before the market settled-0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 24 of 67 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)6725.4%17 W · 50 L-2.1-0.0329c-39%47
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Oct 23, 2026, EDTWill Apple release a foldable iPhone before 2027?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)77c$741+30.5%+$225.78
Oct 6, 2026, EDTWill Paramount close Warner Bros acquisition?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)14c$116-100%-$116.4
Oct 6, 2026, EDTNo listed company closes Warner Bros acquisition by June 30, 2027on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)12c$123-100%-$122.95
Sep 4, 2026, EDTWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)58c$181+71.3%+$128.97
Sep 1, 2026, EDTWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)62c$18+61.3%+$11.25
Aug 2, 2026, EDTWill Elon Musk’s net worth be between $0.80T and $0.90T on July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)10c$33-100%-$32.98
Jul 31, 2026, EDTWill NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)29c$83-100%-$82.94
Jul 31, 2026, EDTWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)28c$111-100%-$110.9
Jul 31, 2026, EDTWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)9c$13-100%-$13.5
Jul 31, 2026, EDTWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)15c$136-100%-$136
Jul 28, 2026, EDTMoonshot publishes Kimi K3 weights by July 27?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)10c$10-100%-$10
Jul 18, 2026, EDTWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by July 17, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)64c$25-100%-$25.08
Jul 7, 2026, EDTGPT-5.6 released by July 6, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)10c$19-100%-$19
Jul 4, 2026, EDTGPT-5.6 released by July 3, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$14-100%-$14
Jul 3, 2026, EDTWill Claude Mythos 5 be restored for US customers by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)50c$20+100%+$20
Jul 3, 2026, EDTTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)30c$110-100%-$109.79
Jul 1, 2026, EDTWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 17?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)14c$28-100%-$28
Jul 1, 2026, EDTWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by August 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)9c$18-100%-$18
Jul 1, 2026, EDTWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$11-100%-$10.8
Jul 1, 2026, EDTGemini 4.0 released by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)13c$26-100%-$26
Jul 1, 2026, EDTWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)17c$17-100%-$17.1
Jul 1, 2026, EDTWill GPT-6 be released by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)18c$56-100%-$55.58
Jul 1, 2026, EDTGrok 5 released by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)18c$18-100%-$18
Jun 30, 2026, EDTWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)29c$46+243.7%+$111.58
Jun 30, 2026, EDTWill Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)18c$14-100%-$14.4
Showing 25 of 67 picks, newest first.
Valorantlast settled Oct 17, 2026, EDT$25—no start of play8 dresells, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled-0.63no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)10%0 W · 1 L-0.6-0.6363c-100%47
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Oct 17, 2026, EDTWill keiko have the most kills for NRG at VALORANT Champions 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)63c$25-100%-$25.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast settled Oct 4, 2026, EDT$352—too few: 2 picks7 dresells, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 6 of them sold before the market settled-0.11no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9-0.1532c-72.9%47
Tweets Inactivelast settled May 1, 2026, EDT$120—no start of play3 dto the end, median over 11 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled-0.21no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)50%0 W · 5 L-1.0-0.2121c-100%46
World Politicslast settled Oct 20, 2026, EDT$5,670—no start of play8 dresells, median over 84 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 68 of them sold before the market settled-0.06no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 20 of 53 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)5328.3%15 W · 38 L-3.0-0.0634c-45.5%46
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Oct 20, 2026, EDTWill Adrian Veștea be the next Prime Minister of Romania?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)58c$63+72.9%+$45.68
Oct 20, 2026, EDTWill Sorin Grindeanu be the next Prime Minister of Romania?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)67c$82+49.2%+$40.13
Oct 5, 2026, EDTWill Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)1c$15-100%-$15.41
Oct 5, 2026, EDTWill Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)63c$63-100%-$63
Oct 5, 2026, EDTWill Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)20c$124-100%-$123.84
Oct 4, 2026, EDTWill Renan Santos finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)12c$27-100%-$27.32
Oct 4, 2026, EDTWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)79c$252+27%+$68.1
Sep 21, 2026, EDTWill CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)28c$42-100%-$42
Sep 21, 2026, EDTWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)25c$49-100%-$49.09
Sep 7, 2026, EDTWill CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$18-100%-$18.2
Aug 14, 2026, EDTWill Count Binface get second place in the Clacton by-election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)70c$21+42.9%+$9
Aug 5, 2026, EDTWill the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the August meeting?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)28c$28-100%-$28
Jul 20, 2026, EDTWill Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)19c$19-100%-$19.3
Jul 20, 2026, EDTWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)4c$12-100%-$12.02
Jul 20, 2026, EDTWill Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)13c$74-100%-$74.34
Jul 20, 2026, EDTWill no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)58c$116+72.4%+$84
Jul 20, 2026, EDTWill the next UK Prime Minister be appointed by July 19?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)17c$107-100%-$107.22
Jul 17, 2026, EDTIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)67c$214+49.2%+$105.54
Jul 6, 2026, EDTWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)65c$33-100%-$32.6
Jul 6, 2026, EDTWill Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)63c$94+59.6%+$56
Jul 1, 2026, EDTIsraeli parliament dissolved by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)24c$88-100%-$88.38
Jun 25, 2026, EDTWill Iván Cepeda Castro win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)11c$40-100%-$40
Jun 24, 2026, EDTWill Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)20c$109-100%-$108.9
Jun 24, 2026, EDTWill Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)36c$637-100%-$636.62
Jun 22, 2026, EDTStarmer out by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)32c$16-100%-$16
Showing 25 of 53 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast settled Jul 1, 2026, EDT$1,185—no start of play6 dresells, median over 44 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 33 of them sold before the market settled-0.14no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 7 of 12 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)1216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.5-0.1229c-78.7%46
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Jul 1, 2026, EDTMamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)57c$17-100%-$17.46
May 13, 2026, EDTWill Trump visit China by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)12c$12-100%-$12
May 13, 2026, EDTWill Trump visit China by May 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)17c$15-100%-$15.3
Apr 2, 2026, EDTPam Bondi out as Attorney General by December 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)30c$15-100%-$15
Jan 1, 2026, ESTWill Trump sell 0 Gold Cards in 2025?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)78c$155+27.9%+$43.07
Jan 1, 2026, ESTEpstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)6c$10-100%-$10.2
Jan 1, 2026, ESTUS forces in Venezuela by December 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)17c$38-100%-$38.19
Jan 1, 2026, ESTWill Trump be impeached in 2025?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)3c$19-100%-$18.8
Jan 1, 2026, ESTIsrael x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)78c$86+27.9%+$24
Dec 2, 2025, ESTWill Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)35c$789-100%-$789.12
Nov 25, 2025, ESTWill Zohran Mamdani praise Donald Trump on Friday?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)9c$18-100%-$18
Oct 30, 2025, EDTWill Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)5c$10-100%-$10.26
All 12 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast settled Oct 2, 2026, EDT$1,093—no start of play3 dresells, median over 21 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 18 of them sold before the market settled-0.12no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 13 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)1323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.7-0.1336c-49.5%45
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Oct 2, 2026, EDTGovernment shutdown by October 1?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)45c$23-100%-$22.5
Aug 25, 2026, EDTWill Russell Fry be the new Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)65c$20-100%-$19.5
Jul 29, 2026, EDTWill Toby Doeden win the 2026 South Dakota Governor Republican primary election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)36c$74-100%-$73.95
Jul 28, 2026, EDTWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)37c$19+170.3%+$33.2
Jul 10, 2026, EDTWill Barbara Kirkmeyer win the 2026 Colorado Governor Republican primary election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)38c$217-100%-$217.01
Jun 10, 2026, EDTWill both candidates advancing to the general election for Governor of California from the June 2, 2026 primary be affiliated with the Democratic Party?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)25c$25-100%-$25
Jun 10, 2026, EDTWill Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)47c$14+112%+$15.16
Dec 3, 2025, ESTWill Jim McGreevey win the 2025 Jersey City mayoral election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)17c$10-100%-$10.26
Dec 2, 2025, ESTWill Zohran Mamdani win by 0-10%?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)72c$61-100%-$61.22
Dec 2, 2025, ESTWill Mamdani get over 50% of the vote in the general mayoral election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)57c$57+74.8%+$42.8
Nov 5, 2025, ESTWill Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)8c$157-100%-$156.87
Nov 5, 2025, ESTWill Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)8c$405-100%-$404.58
Nov 4, 2025, ESTWill Obama endorse Mamdani?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)10c$11-100%-$11.37
All 13 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast settled Oct 2, 2026, EDT$854—no start of play9 dresells, median over 16 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 13 of them sold before the market settled-0.22no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 6 of 10 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)100%0 W · 10 L-2.0-0.2020c-100%44
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Oct 2, 2026, EDTWill Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$21-100%-$21
Aug 4, 2026, EDTStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)43c$374-100%-$374
Jul 21, 2026, EDTStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)17c$162-100%-$162
Jul 16, 2026, EDTStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)15c$33-100%-$33.3
Jul 7, 2026, EDTWill 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)17c$17-100%-$17
Jul 2, 2026, EDTWill 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)6c$18-100%-$18
Jun 30, 2026, EDTWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)57c$171-100%-$171
Jun 24, 2026, EDTWill 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)13c$19-100%-$18.68
May 12, 2026, EDTStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)5c$10-100%-$10
Jan 1, 2026, ESTWill Gold close below $4000 at the end of 2025?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)23c$29-100%-$28.72
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast settled Sep 24, 2026, EDT$7,538—no start of play3 dresells, median over 102 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 85 of them sold before the market settled-0.08no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 41 of 71 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)7129.6%21 W · 50 L-5.6-0.0837c-38.3%44
SettledMarketPositionResultEntrySizeReturnP/L held
Sep 24, 2026, EDTWill Benjamin Netanyahu visit New York City by September 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)33c$233-100%-$233
Sep 1, 2026, EDTIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$59-100%-$58.9
Aug 1, 2026, EDTUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)55c$222-100%-$222
Aug 1, 2026, EDTUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)4c$48-100%-$48
Aug 1, 2026, EDTIsrael withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)5c$40-100%-$40
Aug 1, 2026, EDTWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)13c$13-100%-$13
Aug 1, 2026, EDTMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)16c$32-100%-$32
Aug 1, 2026, EDTWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)7c$56-100%-$56
Jul 31, 2026, EDTWill Trump praise Benjamin Netanyahu by July 31?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)75c$30+34.2%+$10.2
Jul 28, 2026, EDTWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)56c$134+78.6%+$105.59
Jul 18, 2026, EDTUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)34c$68-100%-$67.95
Jul 5, 2026, EDTUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 3, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)8c$52-100%-$52.4
Jul 3, 2026, EDTU.S. Embassy in Damascus reopened by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)14c$20-100%-$19.6
Jul 2, 2026, EDTIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)17c$17-100%-$17
Jul 1, 2026, EDTIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)26c$46-100%-$46.4
Jul 1, 2026, EDTWill any country join the Board of Peace by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)32c$16-100%-$16.16
Jul 1, 2026, EDT Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoWon (open this pick on its own page)53c$210+90.5%+$190
Jul 1, 2026, EDTNetanyahu out by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)8c$152-100%-$152
Jul 1, 2026, EDTWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)23c$138-100%-$138
Jul 1, 2026, EDTIran coup attempt by June 30?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)23c$125-100%-$125.49
Jun 21, 2026, EDTWill Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)58c$52+72.3%+$37.75
Jun 21, 2026, EDTWill no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesLost (open this pick on its own page)14c$14-100%-$13.9
Jun 18, 2026, EDTWill the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)YesWon (open this pick on its own page)78c$148+28.2%+$41.8
Jun 17, 2026, EDTUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)33c$198-100%-$198
Jun 17, 2026, EDTUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)NoLost (open this pick on its own page)75c$165-100%-$165
Showing 25 of 71 picks, newest first.
Musiclast settled Oct 3, 2026, EDT$319—no start of play2 dresells, median over 21 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 11 of them sold before the market settled-0.43no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)60%0 W · 6 L-2.6-0.4343c-100%41
What is a Tail Score?

A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.

The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.

The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.

Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.

Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.