Nothing to tail here. This wallet has no qualified Mls picks that settled in the last 90 days, so there was nothing to put a stake on.
A hypothetical, built only from this wallet’s own qualified Mls picks. It puts $50 on each one, held to the end, at the price the wallet paid plus the 0c of slippage TailMyPicks adds in its score. It shows what those picks did, not what the next one will do. It is before any fees you pay where you bet.
Record by category37 Categories
What these columns mean
Category
The category of this row’s record, with the day its latest pick settled shown under it. Days are in US Eastern time, the time zone Polymarket uses for its markets. An American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other time zone would show the day after the game. INACTIVE: A wallet becomes inactive in a category once it has missed more than 10 of the days on which something settled there. The score is kept and the wallet keeps its page here. It only leaves the default leaderboard. If it was in the top 50 and its score would still put it there, it still appears in the feed.
Staked
The money this wallet put on its qualified picks in this category: what it risked, not how many times it had an opinion. Nine hundred one-dollar picks and nine hundred thousand-dollar picks are not the same wallet. This figure is never added to anything in what this wallet holds right now, below: the two cover different positions, measured on different days.
When it bets
Whether this wallet bets before the match starts or once it is under way. It shows the share of its qualified picks in this category first bought before the start of play, and the share bought in play, at or after the start. The start is the one Polymarket records: a match's kick-off or, for weather, the start of the day being forecast. An in-play bet is placed while the price is moving, so it is harder to tail in time. This is measured only where play has a start (sports, esports and weather). Under 10 such picks there is no figure, only the count. The figures also show how many picks the shares rest on and how long before or after the start the wallet usually buys: hover them, or open the JSON version of this record.
Holds
How long this wallet usually keeps what it buys here. It is the median, over every pick it has in this category, of the time from its first buy on the side it was judged on until it sold those shares, or until the market settled if it never sold. The When it bets column says when the wallet got in. This says how long it stayed, and a wallet can be early and gone in six seconds. It counts every pick, not only the qualified ones, on purpose: otherwise a wallet that flips its expensive positions and holds its cheap ones would be judged on the half that flatters it. TO THE END: most of those picks were held until the market settled. RESELLS: most were sold before that, so following it means selling when it sells. Its record here is scored as if every pick were held to the end. UNFOLLOWABLE: under 1 min, the wallet is left out of this category's ranking. Its edge may be real, but nobody could follow it. We can only see a wallet move every fifteen seconds, so a position that lasts six seconds is gone before you hear about it.
At your price
What a follower would have made on each qualified pick here, buying the same side 2 minutes after this wallet did, at the market price at that moment. Beside it is the edge: what the wallet made at its own price, on the same picks. The word under it is the share of the edge a follower keeps. A wallet is left out of a category's ranking when a follower who bought the same side 2 minutes later would have kept less than 75% of its edge there. The edge may be real, but the price had moved before anyone following could act. This figure is generous to the wallet: a pick nobody traded in that window counts at the wallet's own price. The word also shows how many picks were measured. Realizable edge is a different figure: it charges every pick the same fixed cost, while this one charges each pick what the market charged.
Qualified picks
Every pick this wallet made in this category that is big enough to count as a real opinion, and cheap enough for a follower to still get the edge. Nothing on this site is scored from anything else.
Win rate
How often this wallet's qualified picks won, with the wins and losses beside it: 62% of 11 picks is not the same as 62% of 1,100. Every pick is held to the end: it is graded on how the market settled, even if the wallet sold early. No board is ranked by this, because favourites win often.
vs expected
Wins, minus the wins the prices this wallet paid already implied. +8 means eight more wins than those prices were pricing in. This number tells a forecaster apart from someone who bought favourites.
Realizable edge
Per qualified pick: how far this wallet beat the price it paid, after charging the worse price a follower gets. Edge is what the wallet got; this is what tailing it would have got. If two cents more a share wipes the edge out, a follower can't use it.
Avg entry
The average price this wallet paid, in cents, over its qualified picks, weighted by how much it put on each. Only buys count: selling later does not change it. 88c next to a 90% win rate means a record built on heavy favourites.
ROI per pick
The average return on one pick, held to the end. Every pick counts the same, whatever its size. That is how this column tells a record earned over many picks from one carried by a few large ones.
Tail Score
The number wallets are ranked by in a category: the wallet's edge per pick, pulled toward zero so a short lucky run can't beat a long record, then graded out of 100 on a scale that never moves. 50 means no edge at all. A score screenshotted today means the same thing in six months. The scale is published with the scores it grades.
Category
Staked
When it bets
Holds
At your price
Qualified picks
Win rate
vs expected
Realizable edge
Avg entry
ROI per pick
Tail Score
050100
MlsInactivelast settled Jul 26, 2026, EDT
$2,316
before 0%in play 100%, over 46 Mls picks with a start of play; typically bought 34 min after the start
3 h 21to the end, median over 83 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.1493% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 93% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 44 of 46 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
15 h 57to the end, median over 52 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 3 of them sold before the market settled
+0.20106% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 106% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 21 of 27 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Europa Conference LeagueInactivelast settled Jul 23, 2026, EDT
$980
before 40%in play 60%, over 25 Europa Conference League picks with a start of play; typically bought 11 min after the start
4 h 42to the end, median over 49 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.21118% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 118% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 24 of 25 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
5 h 06to the end, median over 22 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled
+0.3886% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 86% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 6 of 6 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
17 h 09to the end, median over 12 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled
+0.2696% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 96% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 10 of 11 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 74%in play 26%, over 19 Tennis picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 h 14 before the start
6 h 28to the end, median over 30 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.1591% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 91% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 14 of 19 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Asian LeagueInactivelast settled Aug 19, 2026, EDT
$2,033
before 10%in play 90%, over 51 Asian League picks with a start of play; typically bought 21 min after the start
4 h 09to the end, median over 124 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
+0.0676% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 76% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 44 of 51 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 25%in play 75%, over 92 Lol picks with a start of play; typically bought 28 min after the start
3 h 57to the end, median over 140 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled
+0.0693% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 93% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 89 of 92 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
7 dto the end, median over 75 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 9 of them sold before the market settled
+0.08107% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 107% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 35 of 55 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
8 h 33to the end, median over 5 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.5397% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 97% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 86%in play 14%, over 341 NBA picks with a start of play; typically bought 5 h 31 before the start
8 h 08to the end, median over 685 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 13 of them sold before the market settled
+0.05112% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 112% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 290 of 343 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
7 h 50to the end, median over 6 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.1797% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 97% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 5 of 5 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
2 dto the end, median over 1 pick in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.69100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Fifa InternationalInactivelast settled Jul 19, 2026, EDT
$6,041
before 20%in play 80%, over 139 Fifa International picks with a start of play; typically bought 31 min after the start
4 h 10to the end, median over 339 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
+0.04141% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 141% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 144 of 158 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Ncaa BasketballInactivelast settled Feb 14, 2026, EST
$4,765
before 59%in play 41%, over 133 Ncaa Basketball picks with a start of play; typically bought 19 min before the start
4 h 39to the end, median over 326 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 14 of them sold before the market settled
+0.0295% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 95% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 121 of 133 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 16%in play 84%, over 19 MLB picks with a start of play; typically bought 31 min after the start
2 h 30to the end, median over 61 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.03out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 66% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 18 of 19 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 21%in play 79%, over 28 Valorant picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 16 after the start
4 h 03to the end, median over 42 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.03out of reach, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 71% of this wallet's edge here, under the 75% needed to be followed, so it is left out of this category's ranking (measured on 28 of 28 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
College FootballInactivelast settled Dec 31, 2025, EST
$40
—too few: 1 pick
4 h 26to the end, median over 13 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled
+0.3587% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 87% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 1 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 13%in play 87%, over 351 Weather picks with a start of play; typically bought 12 h 14 after the start
12 h 39to the end, median over 661 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.02175% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 175% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 263 of 352 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
2 dto the end, median over 20 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.26100% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 100% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Premier LeagueInactivelast settled May 24, 2026, EDT
$4,551
before 40%in play 60%, over 77 Premier League picks with a start of play; typically bought 17 min after the start
4 h 32to the end, median over 141 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled
0.0091% kept, a follower buying 2 minutes later would have kept 91% of this wallet's edge here (measured on 69 of 77 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 33%in play 67%, over 18 Serie A picks with a start of play; typically bought 18 min after the start
3 h 55to the end, median over 40 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled
-0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 17 of 18 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 26%in play 74%, over 113 CS2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 46 min after the start
4 h 00to the end, median over 174 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
-0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 107 of 113 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 90%in play 10%, over 104 NHL picks with a start of play; typically bought 15 h 14 before the start
13 h 24to the end, median over 182 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled
-0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 65 of 104 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 55%in play 45%, over 33 Bundesliga picks with a start of play; typically bought 31 min before the start
4 h 46to the end, median over 61 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 5 of them sold before the market settled
-0.02no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 32 of 33 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 4%in play 96%, over 28 Dota2 picks with a start of play; typically bought 1 h 45 after the start
3 h 47to the end, median over 36 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled
-0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 28 of 28 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
13 h 30to the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 1 of them sold before the market settled
-0.37no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 0 of 1 pick; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
8 dto the end, median over 3 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
+0.01no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
4 h 03to the end, median over 11 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
-0.19no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 31%in play 69%, over 48 La Liga picks with a start of play; typically bought 30 min after the start
4 h 06to the end, median over 85 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 4 of them sold before the market settled
-0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 45 of 48 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Champions LeagueInactivelast settled Jul 21, 2026, EDT
$1,125
before 35%in play 65%, over 23 Champions League picks with a start of play; typically bought 3 min after the start
4 h 11to the end, median over 37 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
-0.04no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 20 of 23 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
1 dto the end, median over 2 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
-0.50no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 2 of 2 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
South American LeaguesInactivelast settled Jul 27, 2026, EDT
$2,344
before 2%in play 98%, over 63 South American Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 44 min after the start
3 h 41to the end, median over 143 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
-0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 60 of 63 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Other European LeaguesInactivelast settled Jul 11, 2026, EDT
$1,746
before 10%in play 90%, over 41 Other European Leagues picks with a start of play; typically bought 29 min after the start
4 h 07to the end, median over 98 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 7 of them sold before the market settled
-0.05no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 38 of 41 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
2 dto the end, median over 7 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
-0.37no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 4 of 4 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
Australian A LeagueInactivelast settled Apr 17, 2026, EDT
$1,051
before 0%in play 100%, over 14 Australian A League picks with a start of play; typically bought 29 min after the start
3 h 51to the end, median over 27 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 0 of them sold before the market settled
-0.12no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 14 of 14 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
before 65%in play 35%, over 23 NFL picks with a start of play; typically bought 6 min before the start
5 h 36to the end, median over 50 picks in this category, every pick counted and not only the qualified ones; 2 of them sold before the market settled
-0.14no edge, this wallet has no edge here for a follower to keep (measured on 25 of 26 picks; a pick nobody traded within 2 minutes counts at this wallet's own price)
This wallet is holding nothing on Polymarket. We asked and the answer was empty: no running positions, and nothing settled waiting to be cashed. This is a result we measured, not missing data.
These figures and the record above are never added together. What this wallet holds on Polymarket right now and what TailMyPicks scored it on are two different sets of markets, measured in different ways. The record covers markets that have settled and been graded. These figures cover money still on the table. No number on this page combines them, and adding one to the other would mean nothing.
What is a Tail Score?
A score out of 100, per category. 50 means no edge at all: this wallet did about as well as the prices it paid said it would. Above 50, it beat those prices. Below 50, it did worse.
The scale never moves. 100 means beating the prices paid by 0.45 per pick, and 0 means losing to them by the same. That holds for every wallet, on every page, every month. So a score you screenshot today keeps its meaning, and any two wallets can be compared.
Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, scores run from about 5 to 87. That is the price of a scale that never moves, and it is why a score keeps its meaning.
It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four picks in five and still score below 50 if the market already priced those outcomes at 90c. It paid for those wins instead of finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below tell the two apart.
The score is pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence, on purpose. Three lucky picks do not make a high score. Several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest score over thousands of picks tells you something a high score over twelve does not.
Because of this pull toward 50, a category score is a cautious reading. A wallet’s headline figure is its best category, so it always plays down how badly the wallet does in its worst one. That is why the table below shows each category rather than one blended number.
Not every trade counts. A pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks only scores what a wallet can be judged on: positions held to the end, in markets with enough volume to count, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
The position was at least $10.
The market has settled, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by us, not measured.